2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #7 vs. #10

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #6 vs. #11 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Louisville -5.5136.5Louisville -362

#7 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary’s (CA)

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Villanova -4.5130Villanova -2.559.5

#7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21TBDTBDTBDTBD

#7 Iowa State vs. #10 Ohio State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Iowa State – 5.5140Iowa State -364.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #7 team is 12-8 ATS. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the #7 team is 9-14 ATS.
  3. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 19-5-2 ATS.
  4. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, #7 team is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  5. Minnesota, Seton Hall, and Florida have BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or lower. When a #10 team has BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or worse, the #7 team is 18-12-1 ATS.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 13-7. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, the O/U is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  3. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the O/U record is 11-12.
  4. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 13-12-1.
  5. When the #7 team is favored by 4 or more points, the O/U is 8-4.

Our Safest Play – Wofford -2.5

Wofford is 37 ranks above Seton Hall in overall KenPom ranking, the highest differential of the 7/10 matchups. They’re second in the nation in 3PT FG %, while Seton Hall ranks in the 200s in 3PT attempts allowed as a percentage of total attempts.

We think this advantage is enough for Wofford to win and cover. Thus, we believe that this is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

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