Kentucky Derby Best Bets of 2019

Below is your betting primer on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, including analysis of the horses most likely to win and best bets.

Horse Betting 101

Below are the most basic bets on any horse race:

  • The first is a “win” bet. The horse must win the race in order for you to win the wager.
  • Next, is a “place” bet. You win the wager if your horse finishes first or second.
  • Betting a horse to “show” means selecting a horse who you think will finish in the top 3.

Because of the difficulty of a win wager, it will yield the highest payoff of the three. A show wager will yield the lowest payoff but offers the greatest chance of winning. The minimum bet for a win, place or show bet is only $2.

Exacta Bets

You bet an exacta by selecting a minimum two horses to finish first and second. These horses must finish first and second, in that order, for you to win the wager. Thus, an exacta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, but yields a higher payout.

If picking two horses in order sounds too difficult, you can “box” your wager. A boxed wager will win if your horses finish 1st and 2nd, in any order, making it more likely for you to win. The minimum bet for an exacta or exacta box wager is only $2.

Trifecta Bets

You bet a trifecta by selecting a minimum three horses to finish first, second, and third. These horses must finish first, second, and third, in that exact order, for you to win the bet. Therefore, a trifecta is more difficult than win, place and show bets, as well as exacta bets, so it yields a higher payout than any of those bets.

If picking three horses in order sounds like too much, you can “box” your bet. A boxed trifecta bet will win if your horses finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in any order, making it more likely to win. The minimum bet for a trifecta wager is only 50 cents, and you can bet a trifecta box for as little as $3.

Now that you know how to bet on horse races, let’s take a look at the field for the Kentucky Derby. One thing to note is that unlike most sports betting, people usually wait until closer to the start in order to bet. This happens due to horses getting scratched from the race on occasion, as well as the fact that odds don’t lock in until the race.

Thus, these odds below will change:

Fast Facts
  1. The last seven Derby winners either won the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, or Florida Derby. The horses that won these races are Roadster, Omaha Beach, and Maximum Security, respectively.
  2. However, Omaha Beach, the original favorite, was scratched from the Derby. Thus, this race has no clear cut favorite. Roadster is unknown on longer tracks like Churchill Downs. Maximum Security has had poor workouts leading up to the Derby. For a horse that’s won all four of his races, something isn’t right.
  3. Weather conditions look to be wet and sloppy for the race. When this is the case, the favorites usually become even greater favorites.
  4. A horse trained by Bob Baffert has won the Triple Crown two of the last four years. This makes him the most successful trainer today. Impossible and Game Winner are his two horses that are favorites.
  5. Improbable is the only horse classified as a favorite that’s ran a race on a wet track (Arkansas Derby).
Best Bet

This bet sounds like a cop out, but it’s the safest bet. This field is truly more wide open than any other field in recent memory. The presumed favorite, Omaha Beach, has to sit out this race.

Maximum Security seems just as likely to win and he is to place near the back of the pack. Roadster ran on a Santa Anita track that’s been closed the majority of this year. Add this to the fact Roadster never ran on a track near the length of the Kentucky Derby. Roadster makes for a risky horse to pick.

Thus, our safest bet is Improbable as a SHOW. It should pay our near even odds in the end, and Improbable’s races show that he can race well on all sort of tracks.

FPL Fantasy Premier League Plan ROS

Our FPL fantasy Premier League squad is now in the top 100,000 in the world and first in our cash league. A strong wildcard play will secure our FPL gambling haul.

It’s been awhile since we’ve posted an update on our FPL squad. In fact, it’s been almost half a season. We’ve enjoyed all the drama in the Premier League so far, and there’s only five game weeks left in the season.

So what’s new? Well, we came in second in the first half of the season. Since then, we’ve had an excellent run of point scoring. We now lead our big money league by over 50 points, and our world ranking is near the top 1%.

Gameweeks 21-33

To give you a sense of the highs and lows during the 2nd leg of the FPL season, here are our lineups. We’ve played the Triple Captain and Free Hit chips so far:

Triple Captain chip
Our lowest scoring GW of the season.
Free Hit chip
Last week’s point haul pushed us in the top 100,000 for the first time ever.
Gameweek 34 Onward

There’s been a lot of movement in our lineup. This is because we decided to play our second wildcard chip. Here’s our proposed wildcard lineup:

New lineup is subject to change.

The above lineup is built to use the Bench Boost chip in GW 35 without any transfers between 34/35. Besides the Liverpool players, every other player has a double GW in GW 35. With this lineup, our squad has no money left in the bank.

This lineup is not without risk. For one, individuals such as Son, Sterling, and Lacazette could be rotated out of the lineup in GW 34. Also, there’s a chance that Brighton as a whole could perform well in their double GW 34.

Based on the remaining schedules, there’s a strong likelihood we will replace one of our starting midfielders with a bench player in GW 36, bring in Sergio Aguero and David De Gea in GW 37, and then a Manchester United attacker in GW 38.

What are your thoughts on the lineup?

2019 NCAA Final Four Prop Bets To Consider

Check out our all NCAA tournament betting analysis here in our blog.

After a hot start in betting on the tournament, we cooled off a bit last weekend. We are now 8-6 on betting on the tournament.

After looking at the numbers, the spreads and O/U for both games seem to be right on point. For Virginia vs. Auburn, the line moved from Virginia -5.5 to -6. For Michigan State vs. Texas Tech, the line moved from Michigan State -2.5 to -2.

However, there are two NCAA Final Four prop bets which we find very intriguing. Both happen to be on the Virginia vs. Auburn matchup.

O/U 17.5 Combined 3PT FGs Made
Pick: Over

This number seems low because Virginia is a great defense against the three. However, so far in this tournament, opposing teams have been shooting a lot of 3s against the vaunted Virginia defense.

In fact, up until the game against Purdue in the Elite Eight, Virginia faced offenses that were outside the top 100 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts. All three of these teams shot over twenty times from outside the arc against Virginia. Here are the number of made three pointers made by each team that played Virginia:

  • Garder-Webb: 9
  • Oklahoma: 8
  • Oregon: 9

When they played Purdue, a team in the top 50 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts, Virginia allowed 14 made threes.

Over the regular season, Auburn placed in the top 10 in this category with just under 50% of their total FG attempts from 3. And as you know, Auburn has the hottest offense of all the remaining teams in the Final Four. They made at least ten threes in all their games in the tournament except for their Elite Eight matchup against Kentucky.

On the other end, Auburn allows a lot of three point attempts as well. They were outside the top 300 in this category as a percentage of total FG attempts. While Virginia hasn’t shot the three as well in the tournament as in the regular season, they should get plenty of opportunities.

We project twenty combined made threes in this matchup and like the over.

Largest Lead By Either Squad O/U – 14.5
Pick: Under

At first glance, these two bets seem a little contradictory. But we like the percentage of likeliness that at least one of these, if not both, will happen.

One thing that has long been a liability for Virginia’s slower style of offense is that the Cavaliers struggle to separate against quality opponents. Auburn will be no different barring a complete no show from three point land.

However, Virginia’s efficiency on both ends of the floor doesn’t allow them to go down by a big lead either. We see both teams trading punches throughout the game, and the final result will end close instead one team landing a knockout punch early.

Best of luck to all those betting on the NCAA Final Four!

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

StakeHaul & GCSN Form Media Partnership

StakeHaul Betting & Game Changers Sports Network (“GCSN”) announce a partnership to combine digital media and peer-to-peer betting for the next generation.

GCSN is a new platform set up to help promote sports and esports-related content/podcasts. The focus is featuring up-and-coming sports personalities for the next generation of sports and esports fans.

StakeHaul Betting is the first official partner of GCSN. Below are quotes from the StakeHaul and GCSN CEOs:

“With our partnership with StakeHaul Betting, we will be combining the sports knowledge and information we share with the ability to take part in peer-to-peer social betting through an up-and-coming betting platform. The sports, and esports betting, industries are set to explode. Thus, we are excited that GCSN will be a part of that.”

Aaron Ludwig, GCSN CEO

“The friendly wager has never been more popular than it is today, especially when it comes to betting on sports. Together, we will grow interest and engagement into sports and betting as a whole. This includes in-show betting, regular discussions around the world of sports, and how to bet on them. Thus, the GCSN and StakeHaul Betting partnership will be a win-win for all parties.”

Jeff Lippert, StakeHaul Betting Founder & CEO

StakeHaul Betting combines a top ranked P2P betting platform with betting content to engage users like never before. Thus, we believe working with GSCN will help provide the most entertaining betting content in the market. Also, this partnership will strengthen StakeHaul’s mission to take advantage of an evolving $150B betting industry.

StakeHaul and GCSN invites you to bet on our success. Please check out GCSN and the StakeHaul blog to stay updated on our journey! Additionally, follow GCSN on Facebook and Twitter to get to know the up-and-coming personalities on the GCSN platform.

2019 NCAABB Tournament Betting Analysis: Sweet 16

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our all first round analysis here in our blog.

What a great first weekend for the NCAA Tournament. Now that the dust has settled, how did everyone do in their sports bets on March Madness?

Here’s a roundup of our tweets from the first weekend. We ended up going 8-4 on the weekend.

We went 5-2 on the first two days.
This was one of the few bets we got very wrong.
We bet Michigan State -10. They beat MN by 20.
2-2 on Saturday’s bets
Houston proved us right and beat Ohio State by 15.

Now, let’s take a look at the Sweet 16 matchups.

Sweet 16 Matchups (Lines subject to change)

All lines courtesy of Bovada

Eight Historical Facts On Sweet 16 Spreads & O/U

  1. From 2015-2018, the #1 Seeds are 10-1-1 ATS.
  2. Virginia is favored by 8 points, and Duke opened as an 8 point favorite. When the #1 Seed is favored by 8 or more points, the #1 Seed is 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS from 2010-2018.
  3. North Carolina vs. Auburn is the lone matchup with an O/U over 150. If there’s a game with a #1 Seed and the O/U is set at 150 or higher, the #1 Seed is 12-1 straight up, 9-2-2 ATS, and the O/U is 9-3-1.
  4. In #1 vs. #12 matchups, the #1 Seed is 6-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.75 points. Only one game has been
    under 10 points (2013 Louisville 77 – Oregon 69). This gives us something to think about for the Virginia/Oregon matchup.
  5. Starting in 2015, in #1/#5 matchups, the #1 Seed is 6-0 straight up, including four victories by double digits.
  6. From 2015-2018, in #2/#3 matchups, the #2 Seed is 3-1 straight up. All four games had a double-digit point differential.
  7. When the #2 Seed plays in a Sweet 16 game where the O/U is set at 140 or higher, the last six have gone under. Tennessee/Purdue & Michigan State/LSU matchups have a O/U above 140.
  8. In the #2/#3 matchup, when the #2 Seed leads at the half, the #2 Seed is 7-0 S/U and 7-0 ATS.

Our First Bets and Safest Plays

We’re already in on betting Virginia -8 and North Carolina -5.

Virginia -8

Oregon made it to the Sweet 16 on the strength of their defense and their 3PT shooting. However, facing a Virginia offense ranked #2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency will be a lot tougher to defend than Wisconsin (#52) or UC-Irvine (#125).

Oregon did well to hold both Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to under 30% from downtown, but Virginia comes in ranked #4 in the country in 3PT % at over 40%. Also, Kyle Guy, leading scorer for Virginia, went only 2-15 shooting in Virginia’s win Sunday over Oklahoma, which possesses a top-25 defense. But the Cavaliers still managed to secure a 63-51 win. So Virginia can win comfortably even when their leading scorer has an off game.

Conversely, while Oregon has shot 50% from 3 so far this tournament, their season average is 34%, good for #171 in the country. Guess what Virginia is ranked in terms of defending the 3? Top in the country.

Thus, we expect a regression to the mean on offense for Oregon and for Virginia to win by double digits.

Otherwise, Virginia is better than Oregon in every facet of the game. For example:

  • Adjusted offensive efficiency (UVA #2 – Oregon #108)
  • Adjusted defensive efficiency (UVA #6 – Oregon #18)
  • Turnovers allowed per possession (UVA #14 – Oregon #125)
  • Rebounding per possession – In games that Virginia lost, they were out-rebounded by approximately 6 rebounds on average. Per possession, Virginia is a better offensive and defensive rebounding team than Oregon during the regular season.

In our view, the only way Virginia loses this spread is if they consistently beat themselves this game. We don’t see it happening in this matchup.

North Carolina -5

As far as our second bet, for Auburn to win, they need to create a lot of turnovers and knock down open 3s. Auburn took advantage of New Mexico St. and Kansas’s propensity to turn the ball over, but North Carolina is much better at taking care of the ball than those two. Finally, while NC does allow a lot of 3PT attempts per game, they allow less than 33% of three pointers to go in.

As far as other matchups, North Carolina ranks higher than Auburn in just about every advanced offensive and defensive metric, as well as coaching.

For example, Auburn is ranked lower (#45) in advanced defensive efficiency than most of the teams left in the tournament, but where they are absolutely terrible at is allowing offensive rebounds. On the other side, NC is a top 25 in the nation in offensive rebounds; Auburn showcases a measly #330 in offensive rebounds allowed.

Finally, since NC is in the 99th percentile of teams in terms of FG% at the rim, we see a lot of high percentage buckets for NC. Combine that with ranking as one of the top teams in the nation in transition, and we see NC covering a 5 point spread from a whole number of different game scenarios.

Best of luck to all those betting this weekend!

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #8 vs. #9

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #7 vs. #10 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#8 Syracuse vs. #9 Baylor

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Syracuse -1.5130.5Louisville -0.560

#8 Utah State vs. #9 Washington

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Utah State -3135Utah State -1.562.5

#8 VCU vs. #9 UCF

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22UCF -1126.5UCF -0.558.5

#8 Ole Miss vs. #9 Oklahoma

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Ole Miss -1140Ole Miss -0.566

Five Historical Facts On #8 v. #9 Spreads & O/U

  1. In the last five years, the #8 team is 11-9 ATS.
  2. UCF is the lone #9 team favored vs. VCU. When the #9 team is favored, the #8 team goes 19-9 ATS. In addition, the #8 team’s record ATS is 11-1 if the #8 team has a better KenPom ranking than their #9 opponent.
  3. If a #8 team from a Mid-Major Conference plays a #9 team from Power Conference, the #8 team is 6-4 ATS. Utah State/Washington is the only game with this criteria.
  4. The #8 team is 2-15 ATS when trailing at halftime.
  5. The O/U record for the last five years is 12-8.

Our Safest Play – Utah State -3

If you take a look at the following charts, you’ll see that Utah State bests Washington in just about every category besides adjusted defensive efficiency.

Some glaring advantages that I think Utah State will utilize are on the glass. Washington is #343 (!!) in offensive rebounds allowed per possessions. Also, Washington is outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency, whereas Utah State, for example, is #2 in 2PT % allowed.

The final stat to look at is FT %. In any close game, the team with the free throw advantage wins. Utah State cracks the top 50; Washington doesn’t even crack the top 200.

We think this advantage is enough for Utah State to win and cover. Thus, we believe that this is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #7 vs. #10

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #6 vs. #11 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Louisville -5.5136.5Louisville -362

#7 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary’s (CA)

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Villanova -4.5130Villanova -2.559.5

#7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21TBDTBDTBDTBD

#7 Iowa State vs. #10 Ohio State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Iowa State – 5.5140Iowa State -364.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #7 team is 12-8 ATS. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the #7 team is 9-14 ATS.
  3. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 19-5-2 ATS.
  4. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, #7 team is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  5. Minnesota, Seton Hall, and Florida have BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or lower. When a #10 team has BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or worse, the #7 team is 18-12-1 ATS.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 13-7. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, the O/U is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  3. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the O/U record is 11-12.
  4. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 13-12-1.
  5. When the #7 team is favored by 4 or more points, the O/U is 8-4.

Our Safest Play – Wofford -2.5

Wofford is 37 ranks above Seton Hall in overall KenPom ranking, the highest differential of the 7/10 matchups. They’re second in the nation in 3PT FG %, while Seton Hall ranks in the 200s in 3PT attempts allowed as a percentage of total attempts.

We think this advantage is enough for Wofford to win and cover. Thus, we believe that this is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #6 vs. #11

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #5 vs. #12 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#6 Maryland vs. #11 Belmont

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Maryland -3150.5Maryland -1.572.5

#6 Villanova vs. #11 St. Mary’s (CA)

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Villanova -4.5130Villanova -2.559.5

#6 Buffalo vs. #11 Arizona State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22TBDTBDTBDTBD

#6 Iowa State vs. #11 Ohio State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Iowa State – 5.5140Iowa State -364.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #6 v. #11 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #6 team is 6-14 ATS, including 1-3 records each of the last three years.
  2. When the #6 team is favored by 5.5 or more points, the #6 team is 6-10 ATS. Iowa State is the lone #6 team favored by 5.5 points.
  3. If a #6 team from a Mid-Major conference plays a #11 team from a Power Conference, the #6 team is 1-14 (!!) ATS. Buffalo/Arizona State fits this criteria.
  4. If a #6 team from a Power Conference goes against a #11 team from a Mid-Major Conference, the #6 team is 2-10 ATS since 2010. However, one of those wins came last year. Will Villanova and Maryland buck this trend?
  5. When a #6 team from a Power Conference goes against a #11 team from a Power Conference, the #6 team is 11-8 ATS. Iowa State/Ohio State is the only matchup that fits here.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #6 v. #11 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 6-14, including 0-4 in 2015 and 2018.
  2. When the #6 team is favored by 5.5 or more points, the O/U is 6-10.
  3. If the #6 team is favored by 2.5 or fewer points, the O/U record comes out to 4-10-1.
  4. When the O/U is set at no more than 130 points, the the O/U record is 9-12.
  5. If the #5 team scores 74 or fewer points, the O/U is 7-27-1.

Our Safest Play – Maryland/Belmont UNDER 150.5

Yes, Belmont has a top 5 offense in terms of efficient FG % and 2PT FG%. They have a top 20 adjusted offensive efficiency ranking due in large part to the fact over 90% of their 2PT shots this season were in the paint and/or at the rim.

However, they’ve only played one game this season against a team with anywhere similar defensive and tempo numbers as Maryland; against Purdue. Belmont lost that game 73-62.

Purdue has adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency rankings of #5 and #31. Maryland ranks #27 for the former and #22 for the latter. Similar to Purdue, Maryland ranks as one of the slowest tempo offenses in the nation. Most importantly, the Terrapins ranks in the top 20 in 2PT FG% allowed because they force their opponents to take long 2PT FGs.

The last fact we want to point out is while Belmont’s leading scorer Dylan Windler is shooting 43% from 3 on the season, he’s only 12-50 in the five games against KenPom top 100 ranked opponents.

So why aren’t we taking Maryland here? They are below average at finishing at the rim, they play one of the slowest tempo of basketball in the tournament, and they are one of the worst teams in protecting the ball from turnovers.

The turnover battle could swing either way, which is another reason why we don’t know which spread bet is better. Belmont is top 20 at protecting the ball while Maryland is top 20 in forced turnovers. Conversely, Maryland turns the ball over at one of the highest percentage rates in the tournament, while Belmont is one of the weakest teams at forcing turnovers.

Thus, we believe that the UNDER here is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #5 vs. #12

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #4 vs. #13 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#5 Auburn vs. #12 New Mexico St.

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Auburn -5.5145.5Auburn -367.5

#5 Marquette vs. #12 Murray State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Marquette -3149.5Marquette -1.569.5

#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 Oregon

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Wisconsin -2117Wisconsin -153

#5 Mississippi State vs. #12 Liberty

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Miss State -6.5134Miss State -3.562.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #5 v. #12 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #5 team is 7-10-3 ATS, but went 3-0-1 ATS last year.
  2. When favored by 4 or fewer points, the #5 team is 10-13-1 ATS. Both Wisconsin and Marquette are favored by less than 4.
  3. When the #12 team has a 3PT FG% ranking of 50 or worse AND a defensive 2PT FG% ranking of 125 or worse, the #5 team is 12-5 straight up and 8-8-1 ATS. The only #12 team that meets the above criteria is Oregon. This seemingly favors Wisconsin due to the small spread.
  4. When the #5 team scored 75 or more points, the #5 team is 17-9-3 ATS, 3-0-1 last season. Auburn, Marquette, and Mississippi State all averaged over 75 PPG in Power 5 conferences.
  5. When the #5 team scored 74 or fewer points, the #5 team is 10-24-1 ATS. Wisconsin averages just under 70 PPG.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #5 v. #12 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 15-5, including 4-0 in 2016 and 2018.
  2. When the #5 team has a KenPom ranking that is no more than 30 ranking spots better than the #12 team, the O/U is 12-13-1. The Marquette/Murray State matchup fits this criteria.
  3. If the #5 team scores 75 or more points, the O/U is 27-2 (!!).
  4. When the #12 team scored 65 or more points, the O/U is 30-7-1.
  5. If the #5 team scores 74 or fewer points, the O/U is 7-27-1.

Our Safest Play – Auburn/New Mexico St. OVER 145.5

We’re going to qualify this by stating we’re a Wisconsin based startup and that we can see arguments for or against the spread for both the Wisconsin and Marquette games. And if you held a gun to our heads, we’d lean towards betting the OVER on both games instead of the spreads based on the matchups.

But we’d prefer a safer play, and we believe the Auburn/New Mexico St. OVER is the safest of them all with their #8 and #37 rankings in adjusted offensive efficiency, respectively.

Even better, both teams strengths on offense are perfect for the defensive weaknesses of both teams. Auburn is ranked #8 in 3PT attempts as a percentage of FG attempts and #27 in 3PT %. New Mexico State is ranked #105 in defensive 3PT % allowed. Conversely, New Mexico State is #9 in 2PT %, while Auburn is #192 in defensive 2PT % allowed.

The final stat that seals this is that Auburn is #1 in the nation in forcing turnovers and one of the top teams in transition FG%

Thus, we believe that the OVER here is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

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2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #4 vs. #13

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #3 vs. #14 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s plenty of advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#4 Kansas vs. #13 Northeastern

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Kansas -6.5143Kansas -366.5

#4 FSU vs. #13 Vermont

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21FSU -9133.5FSU -4.557.5

#4 Kansas State vs. #13 UC Irvine

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Kansas State -4.5119Kansas State -2.563.5

#4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Saint Louis

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Virginia Tech -10.5126Virginia Tech -6.565

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #4 v. #13 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #4 team is 7-12-1 ATS, including a 0-4 record ATS last year.
  2. When favored by 10 or more points, the #4 team is 6-15-1 ATS. Virginia Tech is favored by 10.5 points.
  3. Conversely, when the #4 team has a KenPom ranking that is 85 ranking spots or better than the #13 team, the #4 team is 9-4-1 ATS. Also, when the #13 team has a KenPom ranking of 90 or worse, the #4 team is 13-7-1 ATS. Virginia Tech is ranked #11, while Saint Louis is ranked #104.
  4. When the #4 team scored 75 or more points, the #4 team is 22-8-1 ATS, but went 0-1 last season. Kansas averaged 75.4 PPG against the hardest adjusted strength of schedule according to KenPom.
  5. When the #4 Seed scored 74 or fewer points, the #4 team is 9-24 ATS. Kansas State has scored 75 or more points only FOUR times this season against an adjusted SOS ranking of #32.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #4 v. #13 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 9-11, including 0-4 in 2018.
  2. When the #4 team is favored by 10 or more points, the O/U is 9-13. Virginia Tech is favored by 10.5 points.
  3. When the #4 team scored 75 or more points, the O/U is 20-11. Kansas averaged 75.4 PPG against the hardest adjusted strength of schedule according to KenPom.
  4. When the #4 Seed scored 74 or fewer points, the O/U is 10-23. Kansas State has scored 75 or more points only FOUR times this season against an adjusted SOS ranking of #32. Florida State has scored at least 75 points only two out of their last ten games.
  5. When the #4 team scores 70 or more points, the O/U is 22-16. Conversely, when the #4 team scores 69 or less points, the O/U is 2-24.

Our Safest Play – Kansas -6.5

This line feels like an overreaction to the one advantage Northeastern has over Kansas; shooting from deep. Northeastern is in the top 20 in 3PT FG% and top 25 in 3PT shots as a percentage of overall attempts. Conversely, Kansas barely cracks the top 300 in 3PT shots allowed as a percentage of overall attempts.

However, Kansas is just outside the top 100 in 3PT % allowed. Otherwise, Kansas is far superior in every other facet of the game in terms of talent, coaching, and advanced metrics.

The individual talent and coaching speaks for itself, but Kansas is #15 in adjusted defensive efficiency and will dominate on the glass. Northeastern generally a lineup with 4 guards and one center, which has a lot to do with why they’re ranked #328 in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.

Finally, Northeastern has played only two teams with top 25 adjusted defensive efficiency in Syracuse and Virginia Tech. In both those games, they lost by over 20 points.

Thus, we believe that Kansas ATS is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

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