2019 NCAA Final Four Prop Bets To Consider

Check out our all NCAA tournament betting analysis here in our blog.

After a hot start in betting on the tournament, we cooled off a bit last weekend. We are now 8-6 on betting on the tournament.

After looking at the numbers, the spreads and O/U for both games seem to be right on point. For Virginia vs. Auburn, the line moved from Virginia -5.5 to -6. For Michigan State vs. Texas Tech, the line moved from Michigan State -2.5 to -2.

However, there are two NCAA Final Four prop bets which we find very intriguing. Both happen to be on the Virginia vs. Auburn matchup.

O/U 17.5 Combined 3PT FGs Made
Pick: Over

This number seems low because Virginia is a great defense against the three. However, so far in this tournament, opposing teams have been shooting a lot of 3s against the vaunted Virginia defense.

In fact, up until the game against Purdue in the Elite Eight, Virginia faced offenses that were outside the top 100 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts. All three of these teams shot over twenty times from outside the arc against Virginia. Here are the number of made three pointers made by each team that played Virginia:

  • Garder-Webb: 9
  • Oklahoma: 8
  • Oregon: 9

When they played Purdue, a team in the top 50 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts, Virginia allowed 14 made threes.

Over the regular season, Auburn placed in the top 10 in this category with just under 50% of their total FG attempts from 3. And as you know, Auburn has the hottest offense of all the remaining teams in the Final Four. They made at least ten threes in all their games in the tournament except for their Elite Eight matchup against Kentucky.

On the other end, Auburn allows a lot of three point attempts as well. They were outside the top 300 in this category as a percentage of total FG attempts. While Virginia hasn’t shot the three as well in the tournament as in the regular season, they should get plenty of opportunities.

We project twenty combined made threes in this matchup and like the over.

Largest Lead By Either Squad O/U – 14.5
Pick: Under

At first glance, these two bets seem a little contradictory. But we like the percentage of likeliness that at least one of these, if not both, will happen.

One thing that has long been a liability for Virginia’s slower style of offense is that the Cavaliers struggle to separate against quality opponents. Auburn will be no different barring a complete no show from three point land.

However, Virginia’s efficiency on both ends of the floor doesn’t allow them to go down by a big lead either. We see both teams trading punches throughout the game, and the final result will end close instead one team landing a knockout punch early.

Best of luck to all those betting on the NCAA Final Four!

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StakeHaul & GCSN Form Media Partnership

StakeHaul Betting & Game Changers Sports Network (“GCSN”) announce a partnership to combine digital media and peer-to-peer betting for the next generation.

GCSN is a new platform set up to help promote sports and esports-related content/podcasts. The focus is featuring up-and-coming sports personalities for the next generation of sports and esports fans.

StakeHaul Betting is the first official partner of GCSN. Below are quotes from the StakeHaul and GCSN CEOs:

“With our partnership with StakeHaul Betting, we will be combining the sports knowledge and information we share with the ability to take part in peer-to-peer social betting through an up-and-coming betting platform. The sports, and esports betting, industries are set to explode. Thus, we are excited that GCSN will be a part of that.”

Aaron Ludwig, GCSN CEO

“The friendly wager has never been more popular than it is today, especially when it comes to betting on sports. Together, we will grow interest and engagement into sports and betting as a whole. This includes in-show betting, regular discussions around the world of sports, and how to bet on them. Thus, the GCSN and StakeHaul Betting partnership will be a win-win for all parties.”

Jeff Lippert, StakeHaul Betting Founder & CEO

StakeHaul Betting combines a top ranked P2P betting platform with betting content to engage users like never before. Thus, we believe working with GSCN will help provide the most entertaining betting content in the market. Also, this partnership will strengthen StakeHaul’s mission to take advantage of an evolving $150B betting industry.

StakeHaul and GCSN invites you to bet on our success. Please check out GCSN and the StakeHaul blog to stay updated on our journey! Additionally, follow GCSN on Facebook and Twitter to get to know the up-and-coming personalities on the GCSN platform.

2019 NCAABB Tournament Betting Analysis: Sweet 16

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our all first round analysis here in our blog.

What a great first weekend for the NCAA Tournament. Now that the dust has settled, how did everyone do in their sports bets on March Madness?

Here’s a roundup of our tweets from the first weekend. We ended up going 8-4 on the weekend.

We went 5-2 on the first two days.
This was one of the few bets we got very wrong.
We bet Michigan State -10. They beat MN by 20.
2-2 on Saturday’s bets
Houston proved us right and beat Ohio State by 15.

Now, let’s take a look at the Sweet 16 matchups.

Sweet 16 Matchups (Lines subject to change)

All lines courtesy of Bovada

Eight Historical Facts On Sweet 16 Spreads & O/U

  1. From 2015-2018, the #1 Seeds are 10-1-1 ATS.
  2. Virginia is favored by 8 points, and Duke opened as an 8 point favorite. When the #1 Seed is favored by 8 or more points, the #1 Seed is 7-1 straight up and 5-3 ATS from 2010-2018.
  3. North Carolina vs. Auburn is the lone matchup with an O/U over 150. If there’s a game with a #1 Seed and the O/U is set at 150 or higher, the #1 Seed is 12-1 straight up, 9-2-2 ATS, and the O/U is 9-3-1.
  4. In #1 vs. #12 matchups, the #1 Seed is 6-2 ATS with an average margin of victory of 16.75 points. Only one game has been
    under 10 points (2013 Louisville 77 – Oregon 69). This gives us something to think about for the Virginia/Oregon matchup.
  5. Starting in 2015, in #1/#5 matchups, the #1 Seed is 6-0 straight up, including four victories by double digits.
  6. From 2015-2018, in #2/#3 matchups, the #2 Seed is 3-1 straight up. All four games had a double-digit point differential.
  7. When the #2 Seed plays in a Sweet 16 game where the O/U is set at 140 or higher, the last six have gone under. Tennessee/Purdue & Michigan State/LSU matchups have a O/U above 140.
  8. In the #2/#3 matchup, when the #2 Seed leads at the half, the #2 Seed is 7-0 S/U and 7-0 ATS.

Our First Bets and Safest Plays

We’re already in on betting Virginia -8 and North Carolina -5.

Virginia -8

Oregon made it to the Sweet 16 on the strength of their defense and their 3PT shooting. However, facing a Virginia offense ranked #2 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency will be a lot tougher to defend than Wisconsin (#52) or UC-Irvine (#125).

Oregon did well to hold both Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to under 30% from downtown, but Virginia comes in ranked #4 in the country in 3PT % at over 40%. Also, Kyle Guy, leading scorer for Virginia, went only 2-15 shooting in Virginia’s win Sunday over Oklahoma, which possesses a top-25 defense. But the Cavaliers still managed to secure a 63-51 win. So Virginia can win comfortably even when their leading scorer has an off game.

Conversely, while Oregon has shot 50% from 3 so far this tournament, their season average is 34%, good for #171 in the country. Guess what Virginia is ranked in terms of defending the 3? Top in the country.

Thus, we expect a regression to the mean on offense for Oregon and for Virginia to win by double digits.

Otherwise, Virginia is better than Oregon in every facet of the game. For example:

  • Adjusted offensive efficiency (UVA #2 – Oregon #108)
  • Adjusted defensive efficiency (UVA #6 – Oregon #18)
  • Turnovers allowed per possession (UVA #14 – Oregon #125)
  • Rebounding per possession – In games that Virginia lost, they were out-rebounded by approximately 6 rebounds on average. Per possession, Virginia is a better offensive and defensive rebounding team than Oregon during the regular season.

In our view, the only way Virginia loses this spread is if they consistently beat themselves this game. We don’t see it happening in this matchup.

North Carolina -5

As far as our second bet, for Auburn to win, they need to create a lot of turnovers and knock down open 3s. Auburn took advantage of New Mexico St. and Kansas’s propensity to turn the ball over, but North Carolina is much better at taking care of the ball than those two. Finally, while NC does allow a lot of 3PT attempts per game, they allow less than 33% of three pointers to go in.

As far as other matchups, North Carolina ranks higher than Auburn in just about every advanced offensive and defensive metric, as well as coaching.

For example, Auburn is ranked lower (#45) in advanced defensive efficiency than most of the teams left in the tournament, but where they are absolutely terrible at is allowing offensive rebounds. On the other side, NC is a top 25 in the nation in offensive rebounds; Auburn showcases a measly #330 in offensive rebounds allowed.

Finally, since NC is in the 99th percentile of teams in terms of FG% at the rim, we see a lot of high percentage buckets for NC. Combine that with ranking as one of the top teams in the nation in transition, and we see NC covering a 5 point spread from a whole number of different game scenarios.

Best of luck to all those betting this weekend!

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2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #8 vs. #9

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #7 vs. #10 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#8 Syracuse vs. #9 Baylor

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Syracuse -1.5130.5Louisville -0.560

#8 Utah State vs. #9 Washington

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Utah State -3135Utah State -1.562.5

#8 VCU vs. #9 UCF

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22UCF -1126.5UCF -0.558.5

#8 Ole Miss vs. #9 Oklahoma

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Ole Miss -1140Ole Miss -0.566

Five Historical Facts On #8 v. #9 Spreads & O/U

  1. In the last five years, the #8 team is 11-9 ATS.
  2. UCF is the lone #9 team favored vs. VCU. When the #9 team is favored, the #8 team goes 19-9 ATS. In addition, the #8 team’s record ATS is 11-1 if the #8 team has a better KenPom ranking than their #9 opponent.
  3. If a #8 team from a Mid-Major Conference plays a #9 team from Power Conference, the #8 team is 6-4 ATS. Utah State/Washington is the only game with this criteria.
  4. The #8 team is 2-15 ATS when trailing at halftime.
  5. The O/U record for the last five years is 12-8.

Our Safest Play – Utah State -3

If you take a look at the following charts, you’ll see that Utah State bests Washington in just about every category besides adjusted defensive efficiency.

Some glaring advantages that I think Utah State will utilize are on the glass. Washington is #343 (!!) in offensive rebounds allowed per possessions. Also, Washington is outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency, whereas Utah State, for example, is #2 in 2PT % allowed.

The final stat to look at is FT %. In any close game, the team with the free throw advantage wins. Utah State cracks the top 50; Washington doesn’t even crack the top 200.

We think this advantage is enough for Utah State to win and cover. Thus, we believe that this is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #7 vs. #10

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #6 vs. #11 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s too many advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#7 Louisville vs. #10 Minnesota

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Louisville -5.5136.5Louisville -362

#7 Villanova vs. #10 St. Mary’s (CA)

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Villanova -4.5130Villanova -2.559.5

#7 Nevada vs. #10 Florida

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21TBDTBDTBDTBD

#7 Iowa State vs. #10 Ohio State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Iowa State – 5.5140Iowa State -364.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #7 team is 12-8 ATS. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the #7 team is 9-14 ATS.
  3. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 19-5-2 ATS.
  4. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, #7 team is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  5. Minnesota, Seton Hall, and Florida have BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or lower. When a #10 team has BOTH a 2PT FG% and 3PT FG% ranking of 75 or worse, the #7 team is 18-12-1 ATS.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #7 v. #10 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 13-7. This includes 3-1 records each of the last two years.
  2. When the #7 team has BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 75 or better, the O/U is 19-10-1 ATS. Both Wofford and Louisville fit this criteria.
  3. Wofford/Seton Hall carries a 145 O/U. When the O/U is set at 140 or more points, the O/U record is 11-12.
  4. Nevada vs. Florida O/U was set at 134. When the O/U is set at 135 or fewer points, the #7 team is 13-12-1.
  5. When the #7 team is favored by 4 or more points, the O/U is 8-4.

Our Safest Play – Wofford -2.5

Wofford is 37 ranks above Seton Hall in overall KenPom ranking, the highest differential of the 7/10 matchups. They’re second in the nation in 3PT FG %, while Seton Hall ranks in the 200s in 3PT attempts allowed as a percentage of total attempts.

We think this advantage is enough for Wofford to win and cover. Thus, we believe that this is the safest bet out of these first round matchups.

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