2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #3 vs. #14

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis. Check out our #2 vs. #15 first round analysis here.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s more and more advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#3 LSU vs. #14 Yale

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21LSU -7.5156.5LSU -475.5

#3 Purdue vs. #14 Old Dominion

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Purdue -12.5126Purdue -759.5

#3 Texas Tech vs. #14 Northern Kentucky

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Texas Tech -14137Texas Tech -866.5

#3 Houston vs. #14 Georgia State

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Houston -11.5141.5Houston -765.5

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #3 v. #14 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #3 team is 8-12 ATS. In the last three years, the #3 team went 2-2.
  2. A #3 team with BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 40 or better is 16-5-1 ATS. Texas Tech (#35/#1), Purdue (#5/#32), and Houston (#23/#13) meet this criteria.
  3. When a #3 team has a KenPom ranking that is 100 spots or better than the #14 Seed, the #3 Seed is 10-6 ATS. Purdue (#10) vs. Old Dominion (#112) is the only matchup that qualifies here.
  4. A #3 team from a NON-POWER CONFERENCE (Houston) is 1-6-1 ATS. Also, the #3 team led by 5 or more points at halftime just twice and trailed at half the five other games.
  5. A #3 Seed with BOTH a defensive efficiency ranking and defensive 3 PT FG% of 50 or worse is 5-15–1 ATS. LSU (#62/#161) meets this criteria.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #3 v. #14 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 11-9, including 4-0 and 1-3 records in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
  2. When a #3 team is favored by 12 points or less, the O/U is 12-29. LSU/Yale opened at an O/U of 160 but has been trending down.
  3. A matchup where a #3 team with BOTH an adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ranking of 40 or better has an O/U record of 6-16. Texas Tech (#35/#1), Purdue (#5/#32), and Houston (#23/#13) meet this criteria.
  4. When the #14 team scores 65 or more points, the O/U is 18-7. Conversely, when the #14 team scores 60 or less points, the O/U is 3-30.
  5. When the #3 team scores 70 or more points, the O/U is 22-16. Conversely, when the #3 team scores 69 or less points, the O/U is 2-24.

Our Safest Play – Texas Tech -13

This one was tough. We also like the Under at 126 for the Purdue/Old Dominion game, as well as Yale +7.5. Unfortunately, we find one too many scenarios that could happen where these bets would lose.

We like the Red Raiders to put the clamps down on Northern Kentucky and frustrate the Norse offense based on the advanced metrics of the matchup. Texas Tech has won 7 of their last 9 by double digits, with the average margin of victory to be 18.8 points.

The Norse have faced only two top 100 teams all year and lost both matchups by double digits. Even worse, the Norse free throw percentage doesn’t even crack the top 300! Come tournament time, poor free throw shooting is an easy way to throw away a game.

Thus, we believe that Texas Tech is the safest bet out of these matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament Betting Analysis: #2 vs. #15

Special thanks to @matteise for compiling the data used in this analysis.

Nowadays, it seems like there’s more and more advanced stats developed everyday. NCAA basketball is no different. You have sites such as KenPom and RPI, among others that crunch data to give insights as to who truly are the best teams in the nation.

Now that Vegas released the spreads and O/U for just about every tournament matchup, let’s take a look at what we believe are the most interesting historical trends that have developed in March Madness from a betting perspective.

After looking at this, we’ll give a prediction of our safest bet of the four first round matchups with these seedings.

The Matchups (Lines Subject to Change)

#2 Michigan vs. #15 Montana

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Mich -15130.5Mich -960.5

#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bradley

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21MSU -18.5133.5MSU -1061.5

#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Abilene Christian

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/21Kentucky -22.5132Kentucky -1561

#2 Tennessee vs. #15 Colgate

DateSpreadO/U1st Half Spread1st Half O/U
3/22Tenn -17.5148Tenn -1070

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #2 v. #15 Spreads

  1. In the last five years, the #2 team is 10-9-1 ATS, including 3-1 records in 2014 and 2018.
  2. A #2 team with an adjusted tempo rank of 200 or slower & an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 50 or better (KenPom) is 12-6-1 ATS. Both Michigan (#320/#2) and Kentucky (#265/#11) meet this criteria.
  3. When a #15 team scores 65 or fewer points, the #2 team is 28-15-1 ATS, 24-8 ATS when 60 or fewer points.
  4. The #2 team that has an adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of 10 or better is 3-10 ATS. Michigan (#2) and Michigan State (#8) meet this criteria. However, Cincinnati bucked this trend in 2018. With the #1 ADJ DEF EFF ranking, they beat Georgia State 68-53 and also beat the -14 point spread.
  5. In 13 games against a non-#1 Seed, Big Sky teams (Montana) allow 75.5 points per game, while scoring 58.8 points per game. Going back to 2005 tournament, Big Sky teams have scored 60 or more points only three times and are 4-11-1 ATS.

Five Interesting Historical Facts On #2 v. #15 O/U

  1. In the last five years, the O/U record is 7-13, including 0-4 records in 2014 and 2018.
  2. When the O/U is set at 145 points or higher, the O/U is 2-14. In these games, the average points scored is 146.5. Tennessee/Colgate opened at an O/U of 150 but has been trending down.
  3. The average number of points scored by a #2 seed in the first round over the past three years is 81.6. The average number of points scored by a #15 seed in the first round over the past three years is 65.1.
  4. When the #2 seed wins and covers the spread, the O/U is 9-21.
  5. When the #2 seed wins by 15 or more points, the O/U is 14-27.

Our Safest Play – Tennessee vs. Colgate UNDER 148

Here’s a bonus stat that’ll blow your mind. A #2 team with a 2PT FG% ranking of 50 or better AND a 3PT FG% ranking of 150 or better, AND when the #15 Seed has a defensive 2PT FG% ranking of 125 or worse, the #2 team is 13-0 straight up, 10-3 ATS, and the O/U is 3-10.

Tennessee is ranked #18 in 2PT FG% and #89 in 3PT FG%. Colgate is ranked #187 in defensive 2PT FG%.

Now, you may be tempted to bet on Tennessee to cover the spread, and we wouldn’t blame you if you did. However, Colgate has played two teams in the top #100 this season; Syracuse (#31) and Penn State (#54). They lost to Syracuse 77-56 and lost to Penn State 76-65.

Thus, we believe the UNDER is the safest bet out of these matchups.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on FacebookTwitter, and Instagram.

post

StakeHaul Bets On Super Bowl 53

Here are our favorite bets on the big game.

First off, we regret to inform everyone that Sports Betting Nicolas Cage is still AWOL. We’re guessing he finally snapped after posting a 1-3 record during the NFL Wildcard Weekend.

This leaves Sports Betting Nicolas Cage with a 24-15 record on the 2018-2019 NFL season, so we have big shoes to fill. Maybe you should just do the opposite of what we say.

James White O/U 5.5 Receptions
Pick: Over

Some betting places increased this O/U to 6.5 based on the action leaning towards the Over. We agree with this, despite the Rams ranked #4 during the regular season in defensive DVOA against RBs in the passing game.

In 18 games this season, James White caught 6 or more receptions in 8 games, but the Patriots have shown that will pepper White with targets when needed. In the Divisional game against the Chargers, White caught 5 balls on the opening touchdown drive alone. He ended up with 15 receptions on the game. And don’t forget, he caught 14 balls in Super Bowl LI and arguably should have won the Super Bowl MVP.

It seems this insightful SB Nation article on James White agrees, as well.

The Rams defense got torched by Alvin Kamara to the tune of 11 receptions. We think the Patriots will see what happened in the NFC Championship game and attack it, especially since they don’t have a field stretcher at WR due to Josh Gordon’s suspension.

Todd Gurley O/U 63.5 rushing yards
Pick: Over
(Potential Hedge: CJ Anderson OVER 49.5 rushing yards)

We assume that Vegas has no idea what to make of Todd Gurley’s involvement in this game, as well as no idea if his previously injured knee is still affecting his play. This line, if this were the regular season, would be criminally low.

We’re taking LA coach Sean McVay’s word for it that Gurley is 100% healthy and will be a big part of the game.

Even if you may think the Rams will split carries between Gurley and CJ Anderson, the Rams averaged 143 rushing yards per game in the regular season and blitzed the formidable Dallas rushing defense in the payoffs for 273 rushing yards. While they only rushed for 77 yards last week, they played catchup all game, not to mention New Orleans ranked even higher than Dallas in defensive rushing DVOA. New England struggled against the run all season, allowing a fourth-worst 4.9 yards per carry. 

1st Quarter Spread
Pick: Rams +0.5

Did you know that New England has scored a grand total of just three first-quarter points in the eight Super Bowls of the Brady/Belichick era? Seriously.

We believe two things will happen. One, the Rams will start off fast in this game against a mediocre Pats D. Or, the game will start with minimum scoring, and the Patriots will adjust their gameplay to counter punch the Rams as the game goes on. That’s how they’ve traditionally played in the Super Bowl.

Oh, you wondered what we’re betting on for the outcome of the Super Bowl? We’re going Rams +2.5, but we won’t blame you if you bet on the Patriots and their past Super Bowl experience. We just think that if we picked a NFL team of only Rams and Patriots players, we’d have a lot more Rams players. Talent vs. experience – which will win out?

Best of luck on your Super Bowl bets!

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

Super Bowl 53 Betting Ideas

You want Super Bowl betting ideas? We got ideas for prop bets, Super Bowl Squares, and so much more!

Stop us if you’ve heard this before: The Super Bowl is the most watched event in the U.S. annually. And according to betting industry lobbyists, approximately $5B (!!!) will be bet on Sunday’s big game, far and away the largest amount bet on a single sports game annually.

Here at StakeHaul, we love betting on the big game. Therefore, we’ve put together a way-too-long list of potential bets for you to use StakeHaul on with your friends. You think you’re limited to singular, in-game bets? Think again!

Super Bowl Prop Bets

While you could simply bet on the spread (currently Patriots -2.5) or the O/U (currently 56), why not spice it up with some prop bets? Here are a number of examples, courtesy of Vegas:

Coin Toss
  • Will the coin toss be Heads or Tails?
  • Which team will win the coin toss?
  • Will the team that wins the coin toss win the game?
Halftime Show
  • What color will Adam Levine’s top be at the start of the halftime show? (Black/Any other color)
  • How many songs will be played during the halftime show? (O/U 7.5)
  • What will be the first song sung by Maroon 5 during the halftime show?
Exotic Props
  • What color of Gatorade will be dumped on the game winning coach?
  • How long will Gladys Knight sing the National Anthem? (O/U 1min 50 sec)
  • Will any scoring drive take less time than it took Gladys Knight to sing the National Anthem?
  • How many commercials will run during the Super Bowl? (O/U 96)
  • Which beer commercial will run first? (You could use this question for a number of different industries)
  • Total number of Donald Trump tweets on February 3rd (O/U 6.5)
  • Will there be an onside kick during the game?

Honestly, if you can think of a bet, Vegas likely has odds on it.

Statistical Props

If there’s a stat that the NFL tracks, you can be sure Vegas has O/U odds on it. This includes specific offensive players. For example, James White, Patriots RB, has an O/U of 5.5 catches in the game. While running backs and wide receivers do not have odds on passing yards, there is one prop bet on whether a non-QB will throw for a touchdown in the game.

We will have our favorite Super Bowl bets in the near future, so stay tuned.

Prop Sheet Pools

Want to get multiple people involved in prop betting? Create a pool with numerous questions on a sheet. The person with the most correct answers wins. Here’s an example:

Make sure you have a tiebreaker in case the top two or more individuals score the same number of points.

Super Bowl Squares

Here’s how to use Super Bowl Squares:

  1. Start with an empty 10×10 grid (seen above). This will give you 100 squares that you can let participants select.
  2. Fill in the numbers 0 through 9 vertically in the gray column.
  3. Fill in the numbers 0 through 0 horizontally in the gray row.
  4. Randomly assign numbers 0 through 9 to each column, followed by doing the same for each row. You could also let participants pick their numbers by taking turns picking numbers until all numbers are filled.
  5. Determine how much it costs to buy a square.
  6. Watch the Super Bowl. As the Super Bowl progresses, players track the score at the end of each quarter, and whoever has the square that corresponds to the last number in each team’s score is the winner of that portion of the game.

For example, the Eagles were ahead 9-3 over the Patriots at the end of the first quarter of last year’s Super Bowl. Whoever had the square that corresponded to “Eagles 9/Patriots 3” was the winner. The person holding an “Eagles 2/Patriots 2” square won when the halftime margin was 22-12. A 29-26 Eagles lead after three quarters made “Eagles 9/Patriots 6” a winner for that part of the game. Finally, with the Eagles winning the game 41-33, the “Eagles 1/Patriots 3” square won.

For the remaining squares that were bought, you could create a tiebreaker with a “winner-take-all” scenario, or you could split the remaining money evenly between participants.

Super Bowl Commercial Bingo

Now we’re getting into peak betting degeneracy.

There are numerous online sites where you can enter in 24 different brands (or 25 if you want to not have a free space) you think will advertise during the Super Bowl. They will randomize those brands into bingo cards you can print out for purchase. Same rules of bingo apply, and winner takes all.

Super Bowl Monopoly Money Challenge

  1. Have everyone chip in an equal of real money ($10, $20, $50, $1,000; etc.).
  2. Give everyone an equal amount of Monopoly money at the start of the broadcast (before National Anthem begins).
  3. Everyone uses their Monopoly money to bet on anything and everything related to the game or the broadcast as it’s happening. For example, one person can call out whether they think a team will convert a 1st down on a 3rd down play.
  4. The person with the most Monopoly money at the end of the night wins the real money in the pot (or you can split it 75%/25% for first and second place, etc.).

Are there any other betting ideas that we missed? Let us know in the comments.

Happy Super Bowl betting!

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

NFL Bets of 2018: Conference Championship

We regret to inform our loyal viewers that Sports Betting Nicolas Cage has been missing since Wild Card Weekend. In any event, the show must go on, so here are our NFL Conference Championship bets.

What happened to Sports Betting Nicolas Cage? We honestly wish we knew. We thought Mr. Cage has a good gig here. Maybe he’s on the hunt for blood since he went 1-3 during the Wild Card weekend.

Even with the 1-3 record, the legend himself still owned a 23-14 on the season. Thus, we can’t rule out the possibility that a pagan group whose main economy is honey production captured Mr. Cage. All of StakeHaul is hoping for a safe return of our betting guru.

In any event, we still made a couple bets last weekend. We ended up going 2-0, bringing the cumulative record up to 25-14 on the season.

The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.

NFC: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, 56.5) 
Pick: Under

Call us crazy, but we don’t see this game being a shootout like their regular season clash. Since then, both teams placed an emphasis on running the ball and defense. The Saints defense has allowed opposing offenses to average only 16.9 points per game since Week 7. Also, in that span, Sean Payton’s defense has collected 28 sacks. 

On the other side, the Rams have #1 CB Aqib Talib back and ready to face off against Michael Thomas. Thomas decimated the Rams in Week 9, catching 12 of 15 targets for 211 yards and one score. However, Talib did not play in that game. In the eight games without Talib, the Rams passing defense allowed 300 yards, 2.88 touchdowns, and 0.75 interceptions per game. In the nine games with Talib, they’ve allowed 184-of-286 passing (64.3 percent) with an average of 215.8 yards, 0.89 touchdowns, and 1.33 interceptions. 

Finally, with the emergence of C.J. Anderson as a second rushing option for L.A., both teams will pound the ball early and often. Despite the loss of Sheldon Rankins on the Saints D-line, we think this game has all the elements of a slow, grind-it-out game that won’t look anything like their first matchup.

AFC: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 56.5)
Pick: Under

Yes, we’ve gone full Cage crazy in thinking both games will be relatively low-scoring compared to their regular season matchups. Or have we?

The temperature for tonight’s game will be in the high teens. We think this is the single greatest element for the outcome of the game. According to Pro Football Reference, the average number of turnovers in a game is about 3.5 in all games above freezing temperature. However, for all games under 20 degrees, that number jumps up to over five a game. Also, you should a 5-10% dip in total yardage for cold weather games.

Now here’s where you may say that New England plays in cold weather so they shouldn’t be affected. However, the Patriots have already placed an emphasis on running the ball, as evident by Sony Michel’s 100 yard game last weekend. We don’t see this as a game where New England will have to air it out since we believe it will be tight all the way.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be playing in his coldest game ever today. The coldest game he started this season was a 23-20 overtime win over the Ravens in Kansas City on Dec. 9, when the temperature was 27 degrees (he completed 35 of 53 passes for 377 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception). We expect a similar type of game scoring wise, hence our Under pick.

Best of luck! And pray for the safety of Sports Betting Nicolas Cage.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

Nicolas Cage NFL Bets of 2018: Wildcard Weekend

Sports Betting Nicolas Cage went full Cage Rage after a rogue StakeHaul employee made poor picks for him in Week 17.

All I wanted to do was relax in one of my many mansions overseas over Christmas and New Years. I come back to the States after the New Year to find out an imposter went 0-3 in Week 17.

Anger Level: 100

The manhunt is on for this rogue employee. I would never go 0-3 in a weekend, you guys. Trust Sports Betting Nicolas Cage to guide you in the right path. I’m still 22-11 on the season, so kindly shut up and follow my picks for this Wildcard Weekend.

The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-1.5, 47.5)
Pick: Over

Neither team has run the ball well as of late, but both teams have passed the ball well. Also, both teams employ defenses that stop the run well (top 10 in rushing defense DVOA) but are bottom 10 in passing defense DVOA. Thus, both teams should air it out, and I can see both DeAndre Hopkins and TY Hilton going over 100 yards receiving.

Note: This O/U has gone up to 49 since placing my bet.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 42.5)
Pick: Over

The Over has hit in seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games (average combined score of 53.8 ppg). Seattle has given up 26, 31, and 24 to SF, KC, and Arizona respectively over their final three games. For those that don’t watch NFL, Arizona and SF had two of the worst overall season records in all of the NFL in 2018. Seattle is in the bottom half of the league in rushing defense DVOA, so I see Zeke running for over 100 yards in this game.

The Over has also hit in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games at home (average combined score of 45.2 ppg). Diving deeper into Dallas stats at home, they average 8 ppg more at home than away, and Dak Prescott has thrown 14 TDs to only 3 INTs at home. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has a top 10 rushing defense DVOA, but their pass defense DVOA is in the bottom half of the league.

At the end of the day, I see both teams scoring at least 3 TDs in a tight game. In a game where neither defense has looked strong these past three weeks, the Over should cover.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41.5)
Pick: Over

I think the fact these two teams played three weeks ago will help the Chargers scheme against the Baltimore D better. Chargers only scored 10 pts that game (in LA), but it was their lowest total all season, and they play much better on the road than at home. The average combined score in Ravens games this season is 42.2 ppg (Chargers games are 47.4 ppg). Baltimore has scored 20 or more points in all seven games Lamar Jackson has started. At that low of a O/U, I like the Over more than the spread.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 41.5)
Pick: Bears

The Eagles do not run the ball well against strong defenses, and Nick Foles aggravated a Week 16 chest injury in Week 17. Even though Foles was moved off the injury report, one hit could knock him out of the game again. If any team can get after the QB, it’s the Bears. Their defensive DVOA is far and away the rest in the league, and I just can’t bet against the Bears at home. Also, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they made it to the Super Bowl.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

Nicolas Cage NFL Bets of 2018: Week 16

Well how do you like that? The self-proclaimed greatest actor of this generation is also on a sports betting roll! 6-0 from Week 13 and Week 15 and 18-8 on the season for best bets.

Also, if you fellow degenerates decided to bet on every recommendation of mine, you’d be 9-6-1 from last weekend.

Since I’m in the holiday spirit, good ol Santa Cage will gift you his favorite bets for Week 16, as well as predictions on all the games.

Also, while you’re at it, go watch The Family Man during your break. I just happen to show my soft side in this Christmas romantic comedy.

The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10, 37.5)

Pick: Under

Question #1, what’s more exciting, having sex or boosting cars? The answer is, of course, having sex while boosting cars.

Question #2, what’s more exciting, watching a Skins game or a Titans game? The answer is, of course, watching Gone In Sixty Seconds.

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 43) 
Pick: Chargers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48) 
Pick: Under

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13.5, 44.5)
 
Pick: Under

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3, 43.5) 
Pick: Atlanta

Cam Newton is out for the year. His replacement is some dude named Taylor Heinicke. He has never thrown a pass in a regular season NFL game. If only I was by a casino when the line was Panthers -3 before the Panthers announced putting Cam on IR. I’d drop all the profits from that stolen Ferarri on this.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38) 
Pick: Jaguars

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 47) 
Pick: Colts

Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 45.5) 
Pick: Over

Houston should hang minimum three TDs on that injury ravaged Eagles secondary. The weather in Philly this upcoming weekend looks to be very similar to when Watson played at MetLife against the Jets last weekend, and he played well. He threw for 294 yards and 2 TDs with a 134 passer rating. 

On the other end, Houston can defend the run, but they struggle against the pass, and especially against #1 WRs, according to defensive DVOA splits. Nick Foles peppered Alshon Jeffery with targets in their surprise win last week against the Rams. Philly should also hang minimum three TDs against the Houston secondary.

In a game likely to be filled with big plays, I see a lot of scoring here.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+5.5, 42.5) 
Pick: Vikings

Detroit’s Weighted Defense DVOA is second worst in the NFL. It weighs the most recent games more heavily than games at the beginning of the year.

Detroit’s run defense slightly improved with the acquisition of Damon Harrison from the Giants, but they get murdered through the air. In fact, the Lions D is deal last in the NFL against #2 WR, and by a wide margin too. Going up against arguably the best 1/2 WR combo (Diggs/Thielen) in the NFL, that’s a recipe for disaster.

Also, have you seen Detroit’s injury report lately? Kerryon Johnson (#1 RB) sent to IR. Bruce Ellington (#2 WR signed on emergency after losing Marvin Jones and trading Golden Tate) should miss this Sunday. Da’Shawn Hand, an important piece of their D-line, sent to IR. No Ziggy Ansah. Matthew Stafford dealing with a bad back. I could go on…

In regards to the Vikings, I saw a whole new offense against Miami. As you may all know, the Vikings fired their OC and replaced him with their QBs coach. Many people in the organization thought the QBs coach should have gotten the OC job to begin with. And with the Vikings having playoffs to play for, but not the Lions, I’m going for the Vikings here.

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3, 47) 
Pick: Under

Even though Aaron Rodgers is playing, the Packers are still winless on the road, and they lost #1 RB Aaron Jones to IR. The Jets are a steaming pile of garbage on offense, as well. Pick the Under and don’t watch this game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-9.5, 44) 
Pick: Over

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+14.5, 44.5) 
Pick: Over

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (+4, 43) 
Pick: Bears

You have the #1 defense (by a wide margin in total DVOA and first in both rushing and passing defense DVOA) versus a bottom 5 offense in San Fran.

These past two weeks, everyone was either asking how would the Bears stop the Rams offense, or how would they stop Aaron Rodgers, someone that consistently destroyed them in the past. I think the Bears did more than enough to silence the doubters (man I hate saying this as a Packers fan).

Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put in a fine performance last week after injury, completing 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The SF defense is equivalently ranked to the Packers D in DVOA, so I think Trubisky will have a similar performance.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53) 
Pick: Under

Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, 54.5) 
Pick: Seahawks

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+3, 43) 
Pick: Broncos


“So Sports Betting Nicolas Cage, if you had to pick three to bet on, which ones would they be?”

  1. Minnesota -5.5
  2. Bears -4
  3. Over in Texans/Eagles

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

The Haul – FPL Fantasy Futból Wildcard Edition

Our FPL squad played the wildcard before Week 16. Needless to say, Week 16 and Week 17 couldn’t have been more different. We’re 52 points behind first with three weeks left before the first payout.

Fantasy Premier League Week 16 Points: 38

Fantasy Premier League Week 17 Points: 75

Total FPL Points: 935
Default League Position: 2nd (no change)
Head-to-Head League Record: 8-9
Squad Value: 103.7M

Wildcard Time

As you can see, our FPL squad looks completely different than before. In fact, Raheem Sterling, Ryan Fraser, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are the only holdovers from our pre-wildcard lineup.

Things We Like

  1. If there’s one thing we’ve learned since starting out with FPL, it’s that all Man City players are prone to rotation. Thankfully, Raheem Sterling can still be dangerous off the bench, as he scored a goal in Week 17 despite coming in at the 66th minute.
  2. Even though we had a terrible Week 16, our Week 17 allowed us to make up a total of ten points on first place over the past two weeks.
  3. Eden Hazard looks to be coming into form just as we got him in. If we can continue to obtain 40 combined points from Hazard, Sterling, Harry Kane, and Leroy Sané, we’ll be in great position to overtake first place prior to Week 21.
  4. Our bench stepped up for us in Week 17. Since two of our defenders missed the week due to injury, Raúl Jiménez and Wan-Bissaka subbed in and scored a combined 15 points. Unfortunately, Trent Alexander-Arnold will be out for a few games. Fortunately we set our squad up to where we have a luxury to make transfers for our defense based on matchups.

Things We Hate

  1. Obviously, it hurts to only score 38 points off a wildcard play in Week 16. If only we had played this wildcard before Week 15 or before Week 17. Mo Salah scored a hat trick in Week 16 and 21 FPL points alone. If we had captained him, double that.
  2. The first place squad still has a wildcard to use. After only scoring 40 points this week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see them use it for Week 18. The one silver lining is that their squad value is only 101.6 compared to our 103.7 value.

Looking Forward

After seventeen game weeks, we are still in 2nd place and 52 points behind first. We badly need our squad to survive rotation during this Christmas period in order to catch up and overtake first place.

Recall that the squad in 1st place after Game Week 20 will receive $450, and the team in 1st at the end of the Premier League season also gets $450.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

Nicolas Cage NFL Bets of 2018: Week 15

Sports Betting Nicolas Cage went 3-0 in Week 13 in his NFL bets. After a long two weeks of partying, he’s back with NFL bets for Week 15 on every weekend game.

Finally, I went undefeated in my NFL bets for a weekend. So you’re probably wondering, how did I celebrate?

This, for starters. Lots of booze.

Also, I partied like I did after winning the Academy Award for my role in Leaving Las Vegas.

I’m 15-8 in my NFL bets over the NFL season. This week’s picks will continue the theme of Leaving Las Vegas.

In fact, since I partied too hard and missed giving picks last week, I’ll pick every game this weekend! You’re welcome.

The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+6, 42.5)
Pick: Over

Rooting for the Jets is like rooting for the drunkest guy at the bar to successfully take a girl home. You just feel bad for them.

That being said, I’m not eager to beat on the Texans considering this is their first road game in four weeks. I think the Texans will jump to an early lead due to their significant rushing advantage over the Jets run defense. Then the Jets will have to pass to catch up. I think both teams can hang 20 points on one another, hence my Over bet.


Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)
Pick: Under

The Browns are 1-24 SU in the last 25 road games. That one win came this season against a Bengals team missing a number of key players. Denver is missing a number of key players, including but not limited to their #1 WR Emmanuel Sanders.

As I’m sure you all know, Mile High Stadium is notoriously tough for the road team to win in December. I feel that Vance Joseph is coaching for his job in this game and has all the motivation to win.

Speaking of Mile High, that reminds me of that one time I joined the Mile High club…

Yes, I know that this scene is from Face/Off and not from Leaving Las Vegas. It’s my column. Wanna test me?

Anyways, I can’t see either offense performing well here. I’m more confident in the Under than Denver winning by more than three points.


Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 44)
Pick: Vikings

This is one of my favorite bets this weekend. Minnesota, fresh off firing their offensive coordinator, switch to a new OC many thought should have been the hire in the first place.

I don’t care that Miami pulled off one of the plays of the year and beat the Patriots. The Dolphins are in the bottom five in most offensive categories on the road.


Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)
Pick: Cowboys

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38.5)
Pick: Lions

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45.5)
Pick: Bengals

I’d rather have three hours of anger and depression than watch this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 46.5)
Pick: Ravens

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 45)
Pick: Bears

This is all of Green Bay after how this season turned out:

Thankfully, it’s almost over for them. They walk into Soldier Field against a team desperately trying to secure a first round bye. Combine that with how the Bears lost to an injured Rodgers in Week 1, and the Bears have all the motivation to win.

The Bears’ impressive success at home and the Packers’ inability to both win and cover on the road makes for a juicy bet on the Bears.

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5, 43.5)
Pick: Titans


Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 36)
Pick: Under

This O/U is lower than critic ratings for The Wicker Man. Whatever, those same blowhards obviously don’t appreciate good acting.

Anyways, any football fan with a pair of eyes can see that both these teams quit on the year. Washington is showing how much they care by starting a QB making his first start in seven years. On the flip side, Jacksonville is showing how much they care by starting some guy named Cody Kessler.

Both teams defenses are still pretty strong, so I feel confident this game will be an ugly shitshow and go Under.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-9, 44)
Pick: Falcons

Suck vs. Suck. Two more teams waving the white flag on this season.

So why am I picking the Falcons? I may be crazy (ok, yes I am crazy), but did you know the Falcons are 3-10 this season against the spread? If you bet against the Falcons this season, you’d be making a killing. I think if the Falcons had a more even record, Vegas would favor the Falcons by two TDs.

Yes, this is me trying to outsmart Vegas. We’ll see how this plays out.


New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 49)
Pick: Over


Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5, 44.5)
Pick: Seahawks

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 53.5)
Pick: Rams

I feel like there’s a lot of games this weekend where even the most die hard fans of their teams will not pay attention.

This is a game where even crazed Eagles fans will cease to pay attention by early 2nd half. The Rams are angry after their loss to the Bears last weekend, and need to make a statement here to show they still deserve a 1st round bye. Therefore, they should demolish a patchwork Eagles secondary through the air.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6, 52)
Pick: Saints

I’m picking the Saints out of spite for the Panthers. If you’ve been following my weekly bets, the Panthers screwed me over one too many times this season. Seriously, I’m angry just thinking about that team. I need a drink.

“So Sports Betting Nicolas Cage, if you had to pick three to bet on, which ones would they be?”

  1. Minnesota -7
  2. Bears -5.5
  3. Under in Browns/Broncos

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

post

The Haul – FPL Fantasy Futból Week 15

Our FPL squad got killed by rotation in Week 15. We lost all the ground we gained on the first place squad in Week 14. Time to use the wildcard chip.

FPL Week 15 Results (to see last week’s results, click here)

Fantasy Premier League Week 15 Points: 34

Total FPL Points: 822
Default League Position: 2nd (no change)
Head-to-Head League Result: L
Head-to-Head League Record: 7-8

Lineup Shakeup

  • (Free) Sergio Aguero (FWD – MCI; 11.2M) to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang(FWD – ARS; 11.0M)

Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (This Week): +2
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (Season – Weeks of Initial Transfer): +8

Things We Like

  1. We’re just grateful we still have the wildcard, but we badly wished we would have used it for Game Week 15. Our proposed lineup would have at least kept pace with first place, who scored 71 points on the back of a Harry Kane captaincy.
  2. Ryan Fraser, at his price (6.2M), is a godsend to our FPL squad. It’s amazing that he continues to haul points most game weeks.

Things We Hate

  1. We lost 37 points on first place. Unreal, and just when we thought our lineup had momentum.
  2. Marko Arnautovic picked up an injury during his match and returned zero points. Marcos Alonso, and Chelsea, somehow lost to Wolverhampton. As a result, we received zero points from him.
  3. Our forward transfer returned nothing against a leaky and injured Manchester United team.

Looking Forward

After fifteen game weeks, we are still in 2nd place. However, we are now 62 points behind first place. Therefore, we absolutely have to use our wildcard chip before this upcoming Saturday’s fixtures to have any chance on making up ground.

Our preliminary wildcard lineup contains many new faces. The only sure thing is that Raheem Sterling stays in our lineup. Let’s hope for a strong final five weeks en route to first place.

Recall that the squad in 1st place after Game Week 20 will receive $450, and the team in 1st at the end of the Premier League season also gets $450.

Want to keep the conversation going, or simply talk crap to us? Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.