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Bad Sports Betting Beats of the Week

Welcome to a new series on the StakeHaul blog, where we bring together bad sports betting beats and Nicolas Cage. If you don’t like this series, we’ll personally send an angry Nicolas Cage to scare you into liking it.

Everyone sports bettor has stories where the Gambling Gods find new ways to screw up their seemingly good bet.

For example, our CEO’s father, a Green Bay Packers fan, made a sports bet against his Chicago Bears fan buddy on the Packers winning more than 4 games over the regular season than the Bears and gave his buddy +160 odds. However, they agreed on this bet the day before the Raiders traded Khalil Mack over to the Bears.

Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season featured two especially awful bad sports betting beats for the losing side.

Below are the games. We will rate each game based on how angry Nicolas Cage would be if he bet on the losing side.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (+1)

Final Score: 37-34 Houston (OT)
Nicolas Cage Anger Level: ?????

The Colts decided to go for it on 4th and 4 with 24 seconds left from the Colts’ own 43 yard line with the score tied in overtime instead of punting it to secure a tie game. Needless to say, the Colts failed to convert.

According to ESPN Analytics, the Colts made a poor decision to go for it. Colts fans everywhere threw their TV remote at the screen and made them question their loyalty.

But wait, that’s not all! Afterwards, the Texans gained enough yards to get into field goal range. However, Ka’imi Fairbairn missed the field goal! Tie game, right?

Hell nah, said the Gambling Gods. They laughed their asses off as Colts coach Frank Reich called a timeout right before the field goal to ice the kicker. Naturally, Fairbairn converted the field goal on his second try, giving the Texans, and people betting on Houston to cover, the win.

Speaking of icing the kicker, that’s another coaching decision that been proven time and time again to backfire, according to numerous articles with a simple Google search.

We imagine Nicolas Cage clubbing a baby seal in anger if he bet on the Colts here.

New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 40.5

Final Score: 31-12 Jacksonville (OVER)
Nicolas Cage Anger Level: ????

The Jaguars were up 25-12 on the Jets and got the ball back with around five minutes left in the game. The Jaguars marched all the way down to create a 4th and Goal on the 1 with 27 seconds left.

The Jets had no chance to score two touchdowns with that little time left. However, we still feel most coaches in that situation would have kicked the field goal to give themselves a 99.99999999% chance of winning as opposed to a 99.999% chance.

Instead, the Jaguars go for the touchdown and convert. Also, the Jaguars went for two, but failed to convert. However, that touchdown gave people that bet on the Over the win.

There is ample evidence that Jaguars coach Doug Marrone ran up the score as payback for not obtaining the Jets head coaching job following the 2014 season. We believe it.

Doug Marrone being a bitter man left sports bettors taking the Under on this game even more bitter.

Nicolas Cage would at first be screaming curse words after losing this bet, but we’d like to think he’d later appreciate that level of vindictiveness based on his movie villain roles.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Week 2

Well, this fantasy football weekend sucked. Our opponent has a short and not-so-sweet message to our readers for our cockiness.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Summary (for last week’s result, click here)

StakeHaul vs. Team #8

Week 1 Points: 122.3
Head-to-Head League Result: L 122.3-134
Record: 1-1
League Standings: 4th
Power Rankings: 1st
Total Season Haul From Side Bets: +$25
FAAB Dollars Remaining: $234

Spending FAAB Dollars Early

Since we consider Wisconsin our hometown, the majority of us are Green Bay Packers fans. Thus, we watched the Packers/Bears game Week 1, and saw how terrifying that Bears D can be with Khalil Mack.

I know most fantasy football “experts” say you should not roster two defenses. However, we had to have the Bears D, even with already having the Vikings D. Did you know that they placed in the top ten in fantasy for defenses last year without Mack?

Finally, we couldn’t believe what we saw in the Detroit Lions/New York Jets game. The Lions allowed 48 points to a team with a rookie QB in his first NFL start? That defense ate more ass than its fans!

Upon final review, we made a $16 FAAB claim for the Bears D and also drop the Lions D. The final waiver claims from this week were as follows:

CLAIM BID
T.J. Yeldon, Jax RB $36
Jared Cook, Oak TE $25
Austin Ekeler, LAC RB $22
Quincy Enunwa, NYJ WR $18
George Kittle, SF TE $17
Bears D/ST D/ST $16
Jets D/ST D/ST $8
Tyler Lockett, Sea WR $6
Corey Coleman, NE WR $2
Tyrod Taylor, Cle QB $1

Our $16 claim for the Bears D beat out another manager that bid $8. However, we weren’t done.

Other Roster Moves

The performance of the Lions D wasn’t the only fantasy football player that left us flabbergasted. Matthew Stafford’s performance against the Jets was just as ugly. And with Tom Brady facing the Jaguars defense, we wanted to start a different QB.

Thus, we made a free waiver transfer. Philip Rivers (LAC QB) in, Matthew Stafford dropped.

We made another free transfer by dropping our kicker Matt Prater (yes, we had too many Lions players) for Brandon McManus (DEN K).

Finally, with Marquis Goodwin (SF WR) hurt and inactive for Week 2, we decided to take a risk and sub in the one Lions player that played well Week 1 (Kenny Golladay).

Thoughts From This Week

The fantasy gods giveth Week 1, and the fantasy gods taketh Week 2.

We lost to a team that got 19 points from their kicker (Mason Crosby) and 4 points from one of their starting WR’s blocking a punt (Geronimo Allison).

We lost 4.5 fantasy points by starting Rivers at QB and McManus at K instead of keeping Stafford at QB and Prater at K.

The Arizona Cardinals are a dumpster fire. We have David Johnson, while our opponent had the Rams D. It is pathetic that not only did the Rams shut them out, but that the Cardinals didn’t get the ball past midfield until the 4th quarter.

So yeah. We’re salty as hell.

Hear It From Our Opponent!

How the mighty have fallen! The previously unbeaten and unmatched are now “kupping” the enormous balls of Melvin Gordon. An upset for the record books.

Week 3 Preview

StakeHaul vs. Team #7

We’re facing the lowest scoring team through two weeks. For the love of God, we better not lose this matchup.

Will we make any attempts at waiver pickups? If so, how much will it take to bid to secure their services? Tune in next week to find out!

Oh yeah, LOL Vikings and LOL Browns.

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The Haul – Fantasy Futból Week 5

Our FPL fantasy futból lineup is still holding down 2nd place, but multiple members of our squad have injury concerns going forward.

FPL Week 5 Results (to see last week’s results, click here)

Week 5 Points: 65
Total Points: 300
Default League Position: 2nd (no change)
Head-to-Head League Result: W
Head-to-Head League Record: 4-1
Lineup Shakeup: (Free) Trent Alexander-Arnold (DEF – LIV; 5.0M) to Marcos Alonso (DEF – CHE; 6.7M)
Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (This Week): -4
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (Season – Weeks of Initial Transfer): -7
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (Season – Cumulative): +15
Money in the Bank (GW5 Transfers): -1.7M
Money in the Bank (Current): 0.4M
Squad Value Increase/Decrease From Transfers: +0.6M
Money Gained/Saved From Transfers & Available to Spend: +0.4M

Things We Like

  1. We’re fortunate that bench players automatically get subbed in for points purposes if a starter does not play in his respective match. In our case, we started Luke Shaw despite his doubt for the match. However, he ended up not playing. However, Ryan Fraser got subbed in and hauled us eighteen total points from scoring two goals, assisting on another, and three bonus points.
  2. It was nice to see Wilfred Zaha score a goal and nab two bonus points. Also, Aaron Wan-Bissaka nabbed a total of nine points due to a clean sheet and three bonus points. We needed all those points due to not one but two defenders of ours missing this week due to injury.

Things We Hate

  1. Both Mendy and Shaw did not feature this weekend. Since our one bench defender stayed off the pitch, we scored a big fat zero FPL points for one of our players.
  2. Well, it happened. We went against our own advice and knee jerked Marcos Alonso right at the start of the international break. We did this to lock in his price before it increased over the break. And while his price increased, we should have waited to sub him in for one of either Mendy or Shaw. That move caused us to miss out on six total FPL points.
  3. Sergio Aguero hurt his ankle. If he’s out for next week, that leaves us with one available starting forward since Danny Ings is not allowed to play next week against Liverpool.

Looking Forward

After five game weeks, we are in second place and 26 FPL points behind the first place squad. The first place squad scored a whopping 84 FPL points this past week. Below is his full lineup:

Recall that the squad in 1st place after Game Week 20 will receive $450, and the team in 1st at the end of the Premier League season also gets $450. Stay tuned for next week to see whether we gained ground on the 1st place squad.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Week 1

You know those fantasy football matchups where two of the top scoring teams happened to face each other? Yeah, that happened to us, but we managed to claim victory.

Fantasy Football Summary

StakeHaul vs. Team #6

Week 1 Points: 157.7
Head-to-Head League Result: W
Record: 1-0
League Standings: 1st
Power Rankings: 1st
Total Season Haul From Side Bets: +$25
FAAB Dollars Remaining: $250

The Trade That Wasn’t (Thank God)

We have a confession to make.

Prior to Week 1, we had trade discussions with the team that owned Le’Veon Bell. Yes, this Le’Veon Bell seen out partying like a boss in Miami last night without a care in the world.

Last Thursday afternoon, we saw the email from ESPN. The Bell team offered both Bell and Larry Fitzgerald for Alex Collins and Tyreek Hill. However, the Bell team quickly pulled the trade offer before we saw the email and analyzed it.

Yes, that Tyreek Hill. And that was the first touch of any Kansas City offensive player of the season.

We really wanted Bell. We were salivating at the thought of a lineup that would eventually start David Johnson, Alvin Kamara, and Bell come playoff time.

Eventually, through text, we agreed on the initial terms of the trade. I asked the opposing team to send it over so I could accept.

However, we saw another ESPN email. An email of a trade that was accepted. It involved Bell, but with another team.

Le’Veon Bell and Keelan Cole (WR JAX) for DeAndre Hopkins and Aaron Jones (RB GB).

WHAT THE HELL!? Thought we had a deal!?

Needless to say, this non-trade was a blessing in disguise.

Thoughts From This Week

Sometimes in fantasy football, it pays to be lucky. The non-trade from above may prove to be one of the best non-moves of our season.

Unless you are living under a rock, you saw what Tyreek Hill did to the Chargers. In fact, he was the 2nd highest scoring player in fantasy this week, and it took a performance from Ryan Fitzpatrick no one in the universe saw coming to keep Hill from being #1.

(Fun side bet idea: Will Ryan Fitzpatrick have another 4+ total TD performance this year? Perhaps someone will bite, but that number may have to be lowered to 3+ to get any nibbles)

Point being, had we traded Hill away:

  • We’d miss out on a $15 weekly side pot for having the highest scoring roster in the league that week.
  • We’d miss out on a $10 weekly side pot for having the highest scoring player in the league that week (Fitzpatrick was on waivers).
  • Most importantly, we would have lost our weekly matchup.

Week 2 Preview

Team #8 vs. StakeHaul

We’re facing up against the lowest scoring team that won their matchup in Week 1. However, a lot can happen between now and Week 2 kickoff. Teams pick up players from waivers this week more than any other week.

Will we make any attempts at waiver pickups? If so, how much will it take to bid to secure their services? Tune in next week to find out!

Oh yeah, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL Bears.

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The Haul – Fantasy Futból Week 4

While we wait for fantasy football to start, our fantasy PL futból team is holding steady in 2nd place, seven points back of 1st, going into the international break. We’re also tracking new fantasy PL stats to analyze our transfer decisions.

Fantasy PL Futból Week 4 Results (to see last week’s results, click here)

Week 4 Points: 50
Total Points: 235
Default League Position: 2 (no change)
Head-to-Head League Result: L
Head-to-Head League Record: 3-1
Lineup Shakeup: (Free) Ryan Sessegnon (MID – FUL; 6.4M) to Ryan Fraser (MID – BOU; 5.6M)
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (This Week): +1
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (Season – Weeks of Initial Transfer): -3
Net Point Haul/Loss from Transfers (Season – Cumulative): +7
Money in the Bank (Started): 0.5M
Money in the Bank (GW3 Transfers): 1.3M
Money in the Bank (Current): 2.1M
Squad Value Increase/Decrease From Transfers: +0.6M
Money Gained/Saved From Transfers & Available to Spend: +0.4M

The Net Point Haul/Loss (Season – Individual Weeks) is an increase or decrease in points from week to week on which the initial transfer occurred. The Cumulative stat is the increase or decrease in points from when the initial transfer occurred to the current game week, including the transfer for the most current game week.

Example: Last week, we transferred out Josh King and Ben Davies for Danny Ings and Benjamin Mendy, respectively. King and Davies combined for 10 points last week and 3 points this week. Ings and Mendy combined for 6 points last week and 13 this week. This week we transferred Sessegnon for Fraser. Sessegnon got one point and Fraser got 2 points.

Thus, last week’s transfers net us -4 points, and the one transfer from this week net us +1, for a total of -3 points week by week. However, the cumulative season long point gain so far from these transfers is +7.

Things We Like

  1. Remember how last week we said we’d captain Mo Salah until we found another player matchup too tantalizing to resist? We thought we found that and captained Sergio Aguero. Turns out, all of the top 5 teams in our default, big money league captained him as well. It still turned out to be a good decision since Aguero’s assist and bonus point earned us an extra 8 points over keeping Salah as captain. Don’t expect this to continue, as we fully expect Salah to return his form last year that set the Premier League on fire.
  2. We’re fortunate that bench players automatically get subbed in for points purposes if a starter does not play in his respective match. In our case, we started Wilfred Zaha, but unbeknownst to us, he was hurt and did not play. However, Danny Ings got subbed in and hauled us two bonus points and points from scoring a goal.
  3. It was nice to finally see Luke Shaw and Manchester United get a clean sheet. Could this be the turning point in their season?
  4. 2.1M in our bank to track players during the international break and determine who to transfer in. Diligent planning and management of our lineup and the salary cap has given us a leg up on our scoring as opposed to last year.

Things We Hate

  1. Since his goal in Week 1, Bernardo Silva has done next to nothing in terms of points. In fact, he didn’t even start this past game week. We’re not sure how much longer we can stomach starting a player if he continues to be rotated in and out of the lineup.
  2. Ditto for Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Since his 12 point outburst in the first week, he scored a grand total of -2 points the last three game weeks combined, with one of them serving a suspension. It’s unlikely we’ll get rid of him since he’s one of the cheapest starting DEF in fantasy, but how can we trust to start him again?

With the international break, fantasy PL is taking a break this weekend, and will be back Saturday, September 15th.

Also, in a few days, the fantasy football season starts! Check out our post on how we did in our draft.

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