Did your Premier League side keep a clean sheet? Did they fall in line with bookie expectations? Keep up to date all season with our clean sheet tracker.
All year, we will be tracking Premier League scores and comparing them to how the bookies predict them. We will take an especially close look at clean sheets since that’s the stat where FPL defenders get the most points. Visit here to see an analysis of clean sheets over the past two Premier League seasons.
After the first week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:
Here were the bookie odds of each PL team to keep a clean sheet in GW1 and whether they achieved one:
So how accurate were the bookie predictions after GW 1?
- Out of five teams projected between 20-29% to obtain a CS, three of them successfully achieved a CS.
- Out of six teams projected between 30-39% to obtain a CS, five of them successfully achieved a CS.
- One of two teams with a likelihood 40-49% to obtain a CS achieved it.
- Neither of the two teams with over a 50% projection to achieve a CS got one. Also, none of the five teams with less than 20% chance got a CS.
The total expected clean sheets in the first week were 5.89. The weekend turned out to have nine of them. Early odds estimate between 5.8 and 6.1 clean sheets in the second week.
Two Week 1 matches ended in a 0-0 draw. For reference, 21 games ended in a 0-0 draw last season, and 32 games in 2017/2018 ended in a 0-0 draw.
Even though it’s only one game, Norwich looks like a team that will be tough to achieve a CS against this season.
Liverpool at home against Norwich had the largest likelihood of keeping a CS. That didn’t matter to Norwich, as they consistently pushed the pace and created opportunities to score. With better finishing, they could have had at least one or two more goals.
On the topic of Liverpool, it will be interesting to see how the bookies adjust their CS odds to account for Alisson’s injury over the next month or two.
The match the bookies got the most wrong was Watford vs Brighton. Kudos to whomever bet on a Brighton win, as they had 3/1 odds to win.
This is the second year in a row in which none of the three newly promoted teams blanked the other team in the first week of action.