2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 4

After four rounds of Premier League action, a clean sheet is happening at a lower rate than expected this season. What should fans expect going forward?

With the Premier League is on international break, let’s take a look back and see how clean sheet potential compares with the actual number.

In short, Round 4 marked the third week in a row where the actual number of clean sheets fell short of bookie expectations. For the season, there have been a little over 24 expected CS, but only 18 CS kept.

After the fourth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

After four weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

Chelsea & Tottenham still don’t have a CS

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 4?

More in-depth historical CS data can be found here, but here’s how the weekly CS output compares to the last two seasons:

Clean sheets are down over the first four weeks compared to the last two seasons
Clean Sheet Comparison

We had a theory coming into this season. We thought that this season’s CS tally would mirror more towards the 2017/2018 season due to lack of international commitments. Boy, were we wrong. Here are a couple CS facts so far this season:

  • There have been a total of 5 CS between the Top 6. This is down from 18/19 (8 CS after 4 weeks) and 17/18 (11 CS after 4 weeks).
  • It took until Round 4 of this #PremierLeague season for teams with over 50% probability to keep a CS to achieve them. In the last two seasons, at least two teams with over a 50% probability to keep a CS achieved them in Round 1.
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals

We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.

Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:

Over the last three rounds, there have been 25 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. There have been 20 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 12 actually happened. In the 40 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 13 ended up coming to fruition.

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2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 3

Did your team keep a clean sheet last weekend? After three weeks, there have been 18.13 expected clean sheets in the Premier League, but only 14 achieved.

Round 3 had only three teams that kept a clean sheet. This was similar to Round 2, where teams set a new clean sheet record low for that round.

After the third week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

After three weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

Three of the Top 6 teams still don’t have a CS this season.

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 3?

Thoughts

After three weeks, there have been 18.13 expected CS combined from all twenty teams. There have been only fourteen achieved thus far in the Premier League season. Will the amount of CS increase back to the expected number soon?

Remember how last week we made a prediction that at least one and likely two of Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham would keep a CS?

Yeah, forget that. Not only did exactly zero of these teams kept a CS, but two of those teams also lost.

Looking ahead, Manchester City sets a new season record for highest probability of keeping a CS – 66.6% chance at home vs. Brighton. No other team has had higher than a 60% chance of keeping a CS this season.

Finally, Liverpool is over a 50% probability of keeping a CS this weekend. Including this week’s odds means their expected number of CS will be right around 2 after four weeks. The bookies believe that a Liverpool CS is just around the corner.

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Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Game Week 2

Did your team keep a clean sheet this past weekend? Probably not. This Premier League Round 2 featured the lowest number of clean sheets of any Round 2 in the modern Premier League era.

Round 2 had only two teams that kept a clean sheet. This was a sharp contrast to Week 1.

Wolves v Man U ended in a 1-1 draw.

After the second week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Only two CS in Round 2?!?

After two weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

Liverpool surprises with zero CS so far this season.

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after GW 2?

Thoughts

Last week, we found that if someone was crazy enough to bet on every team to hold a CS, they would have made a little over 9 pounds per every one total pound bet. Translate that to dollars, and that would be $10.88 for every dollar bet.

However, this week, that same crazy person would have lost all that profit, and then some.

Liverpool still has not achieved a CS yet. Looking ahead, they have a little less than 40% probability to keep one against Arsenal this upcoming weekend. We wonder what the percentage would have been if Alisson wasn’t injured.

Looking ahead, there are three teams with a better than 50% chance to keep a CS: Manchester United, Manchester City, and Tottenham. They play Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, and Newcastle, respectively. We would expect one or two clean sheets here, with Tottenham given the best odds.

Finally, Everton has only a 30% of keeping a CS against Aston Villa, according to oddsmakers. Liverpool was the only team last season to keep a CS in their first three matches. Will Everton match them?

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Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Game Week 1

Did your Premier League side keep a clean sheet? Did they fall in line with bookie expectations? Keep up to date all season with our clean sheet tracker.

All year, we will be tracking Premier League scores and comparing them to how the bookies predict them. We will take an especially close look at clean sheets since that’s the stat where FPL defenders get the most points. Visit here to see an analysis of clean sheets over the past two Premier League seasons.

After the first week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Courtesy of https://fantasy.premierleague.com/fixtures/1

Here were the bookie odds of each PL team to keep a clean sheet in GW1 and whether they achieved one:

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after GW 1?

  • Out of five teams projected between 20-29% to obtain a CS, three of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • Out of six teams projected between 30-39% to obtain a CS, five of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • One of two teams with a likelihood 40-49% to obtain a CS achieved it.
  • Neither of the two teams with over a 50% projection to achieve a CS got one. Also, none of the five teams with less than 20% chance got a CS.
Thoughts

The total expected clean sheets in the first week were 5.89. The weekend turned out to have nine of them. Early odds estimate between 5.8 and 6.1 clean sheets in the second week.

Two Week 1 matches ended in a 0-0 draw. For reference, 21 games ended in a 0-0 draw last season, and 32 games in 2017/2018 ended in a 0-0 draw.

Even though it’s only one game, Norwich looks like a team that will be tough to achieve a CS against this season.

Liverpool at home against Norwich had the largest likelihood of keeping a CS. That didn’t matter to Norwich, as they consistently pushed the pace and created opportunities to score. With better finishing, they could have had at least one or two more goals.

On the topic of Liverpool, it will be interesting to see how the bookies adjust their CS odds to account for Alisson’s injury over the next month or two.

The match the bookies got the most wrong was Watford vs Brighton. Kudos to whomever bet on a Brighton win, as they had 3/1 odds to win.

This is the second year in a row in which none of the three newly promoted teams blanked the other team in the first week of action.

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Premier League Clean Sheets – A Historical Analysis

Do you like betting on which Premier League side will keep a clean sheet? Do you wish to score more Fantasy Premier League points via clean sheets? Use this guide in conjunction with bookie odds to predict clean sheets better.

Let’s face it, clean sheets (CS) aren’t always the most glamorous stat to analyze, especially for Fantasy Premier League purposes.

However, you’re missing out on some serious opportunity in both betting and FPL purposes. The Top 6 teams record approximately 40-45% of clean sheets per season, which means there’s value in CS if you know where to look.

However, for today, this guide is meant for historical analysis only. Past performance is not always an indicator of future production. Throughout the season, we will integrate bookie odds to try and predict the likelihood of a CS.

Clean Sheets By Week
This chart details the total number of CS by week for the last two PL seasons.

You’ll recall that the 2017-2018 season had no summer cup tournament. Is there any link to that with the high number of CS to start the season?

Total Clean Sheets By Season

Here’s an alternative view of CS over the last two seasons:

This chart shows distribution of CS data into quartiles, highlighting the mean and outliers.

The “box” indicates the data in between the 25th and 75th quartile for each data set. Thus, for example, the above chart tells us that for the 2018/2019 season, there were most likely between 4-7 CS per week.

The bottom tail represents everything below the 25th percentile, and the top tail represents the data above the 75th percentile. Thus, for the 2018/2019 season, the number of weeks in which seven or eight CS happened was the same as the number of weeks in which zero to four CS happened.

Clean Sheets – Top 6 Teams
99 total CS for the Top 6
85 total CS from the Top 6
Clean Sheets – Non-Top Six Teams
CS galore for the three relegated teams.
Everton with a strong CS record at home vs Top 6

Is there any CS data you’d like to see in the future? Follow us all season for updates!

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