I was in Vegas this past week Monday through Friday and decided to listen to two “sports betting experts” flap their jaws on the radio.
One big topic they agreed upon is bettors should never bet on the Golden State Warriors this year because their team only cares about the playoffs. Therefore, you don’t know which nights they’re going to coast through and which nights they’re going to beat the brakes off their opponent.
The Warriors went 3-0 against the spread last week and are 7-4 ATS on the season, pissing me off.
If you follow sports betting long enough, you can talk yourself into any bet based on analytics or a feel for the matchup. On the flipside, you could argue you should bet on the Warriors at the beginning of the season because they’re motivated to position themselves into securing home-court advantage early.
No matter your reasoning, Vegas will always be more informed than you, and will set their lines according to the matchup. If there was one tried and true way of sports betting, bettors would put sports books out of business.
One day, if you readers are lucky, I’ll slowly reveal how I bet.
By the way, I’m 6-2 in my NFL bets over the past two weeks. Maybe it’s just my lucky crack pipe.
Just kidding. Seriously, don’t do crack.
On that note, on to the picks.
The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. My pick always includes the spread.
The Chargers already beat the Raiders 26-10 in Week 5. Since then, the Raiders put Marshawn Lynch on IR, traded Amari Cooper, and cut Bruce Irvin…
…really, do I need to go on as to why all you Cage fans need to hammer the Chargers bet? I’m getting angry just thinking about it. It’s like that one time I had to recite the alphabet to my idiot secretary.
In fact, I’ll make it real easy for you to have the best weekend of your life:
“But Sports Betting Nicolas Cage, why do you keep recommending large favorites on the road? Don’t the big bettors typically stay away from that LOL!?”
My immediate reaction:
Did you even read the first part above?
Listen, I already hate that I bet against the Titans last week. How was I to know that their putrid offense would score a season high 28 points? Just thinking about it makes me want to burn down JerryWorld.
My reasoning is the Patriots can score 28 points while sleepwalking. Also, that defense is better than given credit for. If they can frustrate Aaron Rodgers into only delivering 17 points last week, they can sure as hell keep the Titans less than 20 points.
Ah, what the hell. I’m going to keep betting on big road favorites here. The Bengals go into Sunday’s matchup without the team’s best player (A.J. Green), for one.
That Bengals defense is already butt, ranked 30th in scoring defense. Also, my favorite cheap-shot artist Vontaze Burfict may miss the game due to an injured hip. Do you really want to bet that the 30th ranked defense, without their best player on offense and potentially without their best player on defense, to keep the score close?