Also, if you fellow degenerates decided to bet on every recommendation of mine, you’d be 9-6-1 from last weekend.
Since I’m in the holiday spirit, good ol Santa Cage will gift you his favorite bets for Week 16, as well as predictions on all the games.
Also, while you’re at it, go watch The Family Man during your break. I just happen to show my soft side in this Christmas romantic comedy.
The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.
Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-10, 37.5)
Question #1, what’s more exciting, having sex or boosting cars? The answer is, of course, having sex while boosting cars.
Question #2, what’s more exciting, watching a Skins game or a Titans game? The answer is, of course, watching Gone In Sixty Seconds.
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 43)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 48)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-13.5, 44.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+3, 43.5)
Cam Newton is out for the year. His replacement is some dude named Taylor Heinicke. He has never thrown a pass in a regular season NFL game. If only I was by a casino when the line was Panthers -3 before the Panthers announced putting Cam on IR. I’d drop all the profits from that stolen Ferarri on this.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 38)
New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-9, 47)
Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 45.5)
Houston should hang minimum three TDs on that injury ravaged Eagles secondary. The weather in Philly this upcoming weekend looks to be very similar to when Watson played at MetLife against the Jets last weekend, and he played well. He threw for 294 yards and 2 TDs with a 134 passer rating.
On the other end, Houston can defend the run, but they struggle against the pass, and especially against #1 WRs, according to defensive DVOA splits. Nick Foles peppered Alshon Jeffery with targets in their surprise win last week against the Rams. Philly should also hang minimum three TDs against the Houston secondary.
In a game likely to be filled with big plays, I see a lot of scoring here.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+5.5, 42.5)
Detroit’s Weighted Defense DVOA is second worst in the NFL. It weighs the most recent games more heavily than games at the beginning of the year.
Detroit’s run defense slightly improved with the acquisition of Damon Harrison from the Giants, but they get murdered through the air. In fact, the Lions D is deal last in the NFL against #2 WR, and by a wide margin too. Going up against arguably the best 1/2 WR combo (Diggs/Thielen) in the NFL, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Also, have you seen Detroit’s injury report lately? Kerryon Johnson (#1 RB) sent to IR. Bruce Ellington (#2 WR signed on emergency after losing Marvin Jones and trading Golden Tate) should miss this Sunday. Da’Shawn Hand, an important piece of their D-line, sent to IR. No Ziggy Ansah. Matthew Stafford dealing with a bad back. I could go on…
In regards to the Vikings, I saw a whole new offense against Miami. As you may all know, the Vikings fired their OC and replaced him with their QBs coach. Many people in the organization thought the QBs coach should have gotten the OC job to begin with. And with the Vikings having playoffs to play for, but not the Lions, I’m going for the Vikings here.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (+3, 47)
Even though Aaron Rodgers is playing, the Packers are still winless on the road, and they lost #1 RB Aaron Jones to IR. The Jets are a steaming pile of garbage on offense, as well. Pick the Under and don’t watch this game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-9.5, 44)
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (+14.5, 44.5)
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (+4, 43)
You have the #1 defense (by a wide margin in total DVOA and first in both rushing and passing defense DVOA) versus a bottom 5 offense in San Fran.
These past two weeks, everyone was either asking how would the Bears stop the Rams offense, or how would they stop Aaron Rodgers, someone that consistently destroyed them in the past. I think the Bears did more than enough to silence the doubters (man I hate saying this as a Packers fan).
Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put in a fine performance last week after injury, completing 20 of 28 passes for 235 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. The SF defense is equivalently ranked to the Packers D in DVOA, so I think Trubisky will have a similar performance.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (-6, 53)
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5, 54.5)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+3, 43)
“So Sports Betting Nicolas Cage, if you had to pick three to bet on, which ones would they be?”
- Minnesota -5.5
- Bears -4
- Over in Texans/Eagles