All I wanted to do was relax in one of my many mansions overseas over Christmas and New Years. I come back to the States after the New Year to find out an imposter went 0-3 in Week 17.
The manhunt is on for this rogue employee. I would never go 0-3 in a weekend, you guys. Trust Sports Betting Nicolas Cage to guide you in the right path. I’m still 22-11 on the season, so kindly shut up and follow my picks for this Wildcard Weekend.
The home team is always on the right. A minus spread shows that the home team is the favorite, while a + spread shows the home team is the underdog. Remember, my picks always include the spread.
Neither team has run the ball well as of late, but both teams have passed the ball well. Also, both teams employ defenses that stop the run well (top 10 in rushing defense DVOA) but are bottom 10 in passing defense DVOA. Thus, both teams should air it out, and I can see both DeAndre Hopkins and TY Hilton going over 100 yards receiving.
Note: This O/U has gone up to 49 since placing my bet.
The Over has hit in seven of the Seahawks’ last eight games (average combined score of 53.8 ppg). Seattle has given up 26, 31, and 24 to SF, KC, and Arizona respectively over their final three games. For those that don’t watch NFL, Arizona and SF had two of the worst overall season records in all of the NFL in 2018. Seattle is in the bottom half of the league in rushing defense DVOA, so I see Zeke running for over 100 yards in this game.
The Over has also hit in five of the Cowboys’ last seven games at home (average combined score of 45.2 ppg). Diving deeper into Dallas stats at home, they average 8 ppg more at home than away, and Dak Prescott has thrown 14 TDs to only 3 INTs at home. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has a top 10 rushing defense DVOA, but their pass defense DVOA is in the bottom half of the league.
At the end of the day, I see both teams scoring at least 3 TDs in a tight game. In a game where neither defense has looked strong these past three weeks, the Over should cover.
I think the fact these two teams played three weeks ago will help the Chargers scheme against the Baltimore D better. Chargers only scored 10 pts that game (in LA), but it was their lowest total all season, and they play much better on the road than at home. The average combined score in Ravens games this season is 42.2 ppg (Chargers games are 47.4 ppg). Baltimore has scored 20 or more points in all seven games Lamar Jackson has started. At that low of a O/U, I like the Over more than the spread.
The Eagles do not run the ball well against strong defenses, and Nick Foles aggravated a Week 16 chest injury in Week 17. Even though Foles was moved off the injury report, one hit could knock him out of the game again. If any team can get after the QB, it’s the Bears. Their defensive DVOA is far and away the rest in the league, and I just can’t bet against the Bears at home. Also, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they made it to the Super Bowl.