After four rounds of Premier League action, a clean sheet is happening at a lower rate than expected this season. What should fans expect going forward?
With the Premier League is on international break, let’s take a look back and see how clean sheet potential compares with the actual number.
In short, Round 4 marked the third week in a row where the actual number of clean sheets fell short of bookie expectations. For the season, there have been a little over 24 expected CS, but only 18 CS kept.
After the fourth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:
After four weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:
So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 4?
More in-depth historical CS data can be found here, but here’s how the weekly CS output compares to the last two seasons:
Clean Sheet Comparison
We had a theory coming into this season. We thought that this season’s CS tally would mirror more towards the 2017/2018 season due to lack of international commitments. Boy, were we wrong. Here are a couple CS facts so far this season:
- There have been a total of 5 CS between the Top 6. This is down from 18/19 (8 CS after 4 weeks) and 17/18 (11 CS after 4 weeks).
- It took until Round 4 of this #PremierLeague season for teams with over 50% probability to keep a CS to achieve them. In the last two seasons, at least two teams with over a 50% probability to keep a CS achieved them in Round 1.
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals
We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.
Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:
Over the last three rounds, there have been 25 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. There have been 20 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 12 actually happened. In the 40 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 13 ended up coming to fruition.