Getting a clean sheet has proven tough after five rounds of Premier League action. On the flip side, teams are giving up 2+ goals at their expected rate.
In short, Round 5 marked the fourth week in a row where the clean sheet total fell short of bookie expectations. For the season, there have been right around 30 expected CS, but only 23 CS kept.
Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 5. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:
After the fifth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:
Clean Sheet Comparison
After five weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:
So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 5?
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals
We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.
Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:
Over the last four rounds, there have been 34 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the expected number of instances, currently just under 36.
There have been 28 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 16 actually happened. In the 52 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 18 ended up coming to fruition.