Finally, teams achieved a clean sheet at a higher rate than bookie expectations. Also, teams continue to give up 2+ goals at their expected rate.
In fact, Round 6 marked the first round in over a month in which Premier League teams achieved a clean sheet than expected (6 vs 5.5, respectively). For the season, there have been a little over 35 expected CS, but only 29 CS kept.
Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 5. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:
After the sixth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:
Clean Sheet Comparison
After six weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:
So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 6?
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals
We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.
Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:
From Rounds 2-6, there have been 43 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the 45 expected number of instances according to bookies.
There have been 35 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 20 actually happened. In the 65 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 23 ended up coming to fruition.