Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Game Week 1

Did your Premier League side keep a clean sheet? Did they fall in line with bookie expectations? Keep up to date all season with our clean sheet tracker.

All year, we will be tracking Premier League scores and comparing them to how the bookies predict them. We will take an especially close look at clean sheets since that’s the stat where FPL defenders get the most points. Visit here to see an analysis of clean sheets over the past two Premier League seasons.

After the first week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Courtesy of https://fantasy.premierleague.com/fixtures/1

Here were the bookie odds of each PL team to keep a clean sheet in GW1 and whether they achieved one:

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after GW 1?

  • Out of five teams projected between 20-29% to obtain a CS, three of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • Out of six teams projected between 30-39% to obtain a CS, five of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • One of two teams with a likelihood 40-49% to obtain a CS achieved it.
  • Neither of the two teams with over a 50% projection to achieve a CS got one. Also, none of the five teams with less than 20% chance got a CS.
Thoughts

The total expected clean sheets in the first week were 5.89. The weekend turned out to have nine of them. Early odds estimate between 5.8 and 6.1 clean sheets in the second week.

Two Week 1 matches ended in a 0-0 draw. For reference, 21 games ended in a 0-0 draw last season, and 32 games in 2017/2018 ended in a 0-0 draw.

Even though it’s only one game, Norwich looks like a team that will be tough to achieve a CS against this season.

Liverpool at home against Norwich had the largest likelihood of keeping a CS. That didn’t matter to Norwich, as they consistently pushed the pace and created opportunities to score. With better finishing, they could have had at least one or two more goals.

On the topic of Liverpool, it will be interesting to see how the bookies adjust their CS odds to account for Alisson’s injury over the next month or two.

The match the bookies got the most wrong was Watford vs Brighton. Kudos to whomever bet on a Brighton win, as they had 3/1 odds to win.

This is the second year in a row in which none of the three newly promoted teams blanked the other team in the first week of action.

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Premier League Clean Sheets – A Historical Analysis

Do you like betting on which Premier League side will keep a clean sheet? Do you wish to score more Fantasy Premier League points via clean sheets? Use this guide in conjunction with bookie odds to predict clean sheets better.

Let’s face it, clean sheets (CS) aren’t always the most glamorous stat to analyze, especially for Fantasy Premier League purposes.

However, you’re missing out on some serious opportunity in both betting and FPL purposes. The Top 6 teams record approximately 40-45% of clean sheets per season, which means there’s value in CS if you know where to look.

However, for today, this guide is meant for historical analysis only. Past performance is not always an indicator of future production. Throughout the season, we will integrate bookie odds to try and predict the likelihood of a CS.

Clean Sheets By Week
This chart details the total number of CS by week for the last two PL seasons.

You’ll recall that the 2017-2018 season had no summer cup tournament. Is there any link to that with the high number of CS to start the season?

Total Clean Sheets By Season

Here’s an alternative view of CS over the last two seasons:

This chart shows distribution of CS data into quartiles, highlighting the mean and outliers.

The “box” indicates the data in between the 25th and 75th quartile for each data set. Thus, for example, the above chart tells us that for the 2018/2019 season, there were most likely between 4-7 CS per week.

The bottom tail represents everything below the 25th percentile, and the top tail represents the data above the 75th percentile. Thus, for the 2018/2019 season, the number of weeks in which seven or eight CS happened was the same as the number of weeks in which zero to four CS happened.

Clean Sheets – Top 6 Teams
99 total CS for the Top 6
85 total CS from the Top 6
Clean Sheets – Non-Top Six Teams
CS galore for the three relegated teams.
Everton with a strong CS record at home vs Top 6

Is there any CS data you’d like to see in the future? Follow us all season for updates!

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Fantasy Premier League 2019/2020 GW1 Strategies

Picking a Fantasy Premier League prior to the season can be a headache. Here are some strategies to starting your season off strong in 2019.

Last season, our fantasy Premier League squad finished in the top 1% of all teams, coming in at #45577. If you follow our blog, you’ll know our FPL season was filled with many twists and turns throughout the season. However, our squad shot ourselves in the foot in the beginning of the season by not planning out multiple weeks ahead.

Is there a fool proof plan guaranteed to start the season hot? Absolutely not, or we’d all be pro FPL players. Instead, we’ll look at strategies to minimize risk for the start of the season.

Fantasy Premier League Do’s

First off, let’s get out of the way the obvious (or what should be obvious) strategies to start the season:

  • DO plan to keep your starting XI the same for a minimum of the first two game weeks, barring injury. No need to start off the season taking unnecessary hits.
  • DO plan on splashing FPL cash for at least two premium forward or midfielder options for captaincy purposes. We prefer premium midfielders, as you’ll see below.
  • DO plan on bringing in defenders with the highest likelihood of keeping clean sheets at the beginning of the season. This seems obvious, but there’s multiple strategies around this for your back line.
  • DO consider early season fixture difficulty when picking non-premium players in your initial starting XI.
  • DO consider players that are playing out of position, but make sure their position is more attacking than how they’re classified on FPL. One example is a defender in a system designed to get him forward on the attack.
Fantasy Premier League Do Not’s
  • DO NOT be wasteful in spending FPL cash on bench options to start the season. Worry about your bench after the first couple months of the season when teams start playing multiple games each week.
  • DO NOT assume players that played well the prior season in a different league will transition smoothly the Premier League. It’s always best to wait and see the first month or so to see how they mesh with their new squad.
  • DO NOT load your team with players from newly promoted Premier League teams. For every 2018/2019 Wolves squad, there’s plenty more squads (Cardiff and Fulham last season) that just aren’t ready to play with the big boys.
  • DO NOT use your chips outside of your wildcard at the beginning of the season. Schedule shifting later in the season can make using the chips more advantageous.
  • DO NOT place defensive minded midfielders in your starting XI.
Lineup Strategies For Game Week 1

For purposes of starting your FPL season out strong in 2019, it’s looking more and more safe to start out with a minimum of three premium defenders. Then you should make the decision whether to go with a fourth 5.5M+ or two 4.5M defenders that rotate well based on their fixtures.

Again, the key to early season success is minimizing risk with your starting XI.

Check out the top 25 leading scorers from the first three game weeks in the 2018/2019 FPL season, courtesy of All Fantasy Tips:

Marcos AlonsoChelsea35
Sadio ManeLiverpool29
Neil EtheridgeCardiff28
Andrew RobertsonLiverpool27
Benjamin MendyManchester City27
Roberto PereyraWatford26
Mohamed SalahLiverpool25
Lucas MouraTottenham24
Jose HolebasWatford24
Sergio AgueroManchester City24
Aleksander MitrovicFulham24
Kieran TrippierTottenham22
Theo WalcottEverton22
Callum WilsonBournemouth22
Steve CookBournemouth21
RicharlisonEverton21
Joe GomezLiverpool20
Virgil Van DijkLiverpool20
James MilnerLiverpool20
PedroChelsea20
Paul PogbaManchester Utd20
Jan VerthongenTottenham19
James TarkowskiBurnley19
Ryan FraserBournemouth19
AlissonLiverpool19

You’ll notice that Aguero is one of three FPL forwards on here, as well as the only premium forward. This supports the theory to stick with budget forwards and goalies, and spend heavy on midfield and defense early.

Need more evidence that you’re increasing your risk by spending funds on a premium goalie? Check out this excellent Twitter thread from @FPLEditor:

With that, we are testing out a theory to start the season. We believe that defenses, in general, get more clean sheets at the beginning and end of the season, while allowing more goals in during the busy part of the season.

Thus, here is our proposed lineup for GW1, with no money left in the bank:

4-4-2 formation for GW1

Follow us all season for FPL updates. We have an exciting new FPL series in the works that will benefit your lineup decisions!

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Kentucky Derby Best Bets of 2019

Below is your betting primer on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, including analysis of the horses most likely to win and best bets.

Horse Betting 101

Below are the most basic bets on any horse race:

  • The first is a “win” bet. The horse must win the race in order for you to win the wager.
  • Next, is a “place” bet. You win the wager if your horse finishes first or second.
  • Betting a horse to “show” means selecting a horse who you think will finish in the top 3.

Because of the difficulty of a win wager, it will yield the highest payoff of the three. A show wager will yield the lowest payoff but offers the greatest chance of winning. The minimum bet for a win, place or show bet is only $2.

Exacta Bets

You bet an exacta by selecting a minimum two horses to finish first and second. These horses must finish first and second, in that order, for you to win the wager. Thus, an exacta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, but yields a higher payout.

If picking two horses in order sounds too difficult, you can “box” your wager. A boxed wager will win if your horses finish 1st and 2nd, in any order, making it more likely for you to win. The minimum bet for an exacta or exacta box wager is only $2.

Trifecta Bets

You bet a trifecta by selecting a minimum three horses to finish first, second, and third. These horses must finish first, second, and third, in that exact order, for you to win the bet. Therefore, a trifecta is more difficult than win, place and show bets, as well as exacta bets, so it yields a higher payout than any of those bets.

If picking three horses in order sounds like too much, you can “box” your bet. A boxed trifecta bet will win if your horses finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in any order, making it more likely to win. The minimum bet for a trifecta wager is only 50 cents, and you can bet a trifecta box for as little as $3.

Now that you know how to bet on horse races, let’s take a look at the field for the Kentucky Derby. One thing to note is that unlike most sports betting, people usually wait until closer to the start in order to bet. This happens due to horses getting scratched from the race on occasion, as well as the fact that odds don’t lock in until the race.

Thus, these odds below will change:

Fast Facts
  1. The last seven Derby winners either won the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, or Florida Derby. The horses that won these races are Roadster, Omaha Beach, and Maximum Security, respectively.
  2. However, Omaha Beach, the original favorite, was scratched from the Derby. Thus, this race has no clear cut favorite. Roadster is unknown on longer tracks like Churchill Downs. Maximum Security has had poor workouts leading up to the Derby. For a horse that’s won all four of his races, something isn’t right.
  3. Weather conditions look to be wet and sloppy for the race. When this is the case, the favorites usually become even greater favorites.
  4. A horse trained by Bob Baffert has won the Triple Crown two of the last four years. This makes him the most successful trainer today. Impossible and Game Winner are his two horses that are favorites.
  5. Improbable is the only horse classified as a favorite that’s ran a race on a wet track (Arkansas Derby).
Best Bet

This bet sounds like a cop out, but it’s the safest bet. This field is truly more wide open than any other field in recent memory. The presumed favorite, Omaha Beach, has to sit out this race.

Maximum Security seems just as likely to win and he is to place near the back of the pack. Roadster ran on a Santa Anita track that’s been closed the majority of this year. Add this to the fact Roadster never ran on a track near the length of the Kentucky Derby. Roadster makes for a risky horse to pick.

Thus, our safest bet is Improbable as a SHOW. It should pay our near even odds in the end, and Improbable’s races show that he can race well on all sort of tracks.

FPL Fantasy Premier League Plan ROS

Our FPL fantasy Premier League squad is now in the top 100,000 in the world and first in our cash league. A strong wildcard play will secure our FPL gambling haul.

It’s been awhile since we’ve posted an update on our FPL squad. In fact, it’s been almost half a season. We’ve enjoyed all the drama in the Premier League so far, and there’s only five game weeks left in the season.

So what’s new? Well, we came in second in the first half of the season. Since then, we’ve had an excellent run of point scoring. We now lead our big money league by over 50 points, and our world ranking is near the top 1%.

Gameweeks 21-33

To give you a sense of the highs and lows during the 2nd leg of the FPL season, here are our lineups. We’ve played the Triple Captain and Free Hit chips so far:

Triple Captain chip
Our lowest scoring GW of the season.
Free Hit chip
Last week’s point haul pushed us in the top 100,000 for the first time ever.
Gameweek 34 Onward

There’s been a lot of movement in our lineup. This is because we decided to play our second wildcard chip. Here’s our proposed wildcard lineup:

New lineup is subject to change.

The above lineup is built to use the Bench Boost chip in GW 35 without any transfers between 34/35. Besides the Liverpool players, every other player has a double GW in GW 35. With this lineup, our squad has no money left in the bank.

This lineup is not without risk. For one, individuals such as Son, Sterling, and Lacazette could be rotated out of the lineup in GW 34. Also, there’s a chance that Brighton as a whole could perform well in their double GW 34.

Based on the remaining schedules, there’s a strong likelihood we will replace one of our starting midfielders with a bench player in GW 36, bring in Sergio Aguero and David De Gea in GW 37, and then a Manchester United attacker in GW 38.

What are your thoughts on the lineup?