Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Game Week 1

Did your Premier League side keep a clean sheet? Did they fall in line with bookie expectations? Keep up to date all season with our clean sheet tracker.

All year, we will be tracking Premier League scores and comparing them to how the bookies predict them. We will take an especially close look at clean sheets since that’s the stat where FPL defenders get the most points. Visit here to see an analysis of clean sheets over the past two Premier League seasons.

After the first week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Courtesy of https://fantasy.premierleague.com/fixtures/1

Here were the bookie odds of each PL team to keep a clean sheet in GW1 and whether they achieved one:

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after GW 1?

  • Out of five teams projected between 20-29% to obtain a CS, three of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • Out of six teams projected between 30-39% to obtain a CS, five of them successfully achieved a CS.
  • One of two teams with a likelihood 40-49% to obtain a CS achieved it.
  • Neither of the two teams with over a 50% projection to achieve a CS got one. Also, none of the five teams with less than 20% chance got a CS.
Thoughts

The total expected clean sheets in the first week were 5.89. The weekend turned out to have nine of them. Early odds estimate between 5.8 and 6.1 clean sheets in the second week.

Two Week 1 matches ended in a 0-0 draw. For reference, 21 games ended in a 0-0 draw last season, and 32 games in 2017/2018 ended in a 0-0 draw.

Even though it’s only one game, Norwich looks like a team that will be tough to achieve a CS against this season.

Liverpool at home against Norwich had the largest likelihood of keeping a CS. That didn’t matter to Norwich, as they consistently pushed the pace and created opportunities to score. With better finishing, they could have had at least one or two more goals.

On the topic of Liverpool, it will be interesting to see how the bookies adjust their CS odds to account for Alisson’s injury over the next month or two.

The match the bookies got the most wrong was Watford vs Brighton. Kudos to whomever bet on a Brighton win, as they had 3/1 odds to win.

This is the second year in a row in which none of the three newly promoted teams blanked the other team in the first week of action.

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Premier League Clean Sheets – A Historical Analysis

Do you like betting on which Premier League side will keep a clean sheet? Do you wish to score more Fantasy Premier League points via clean sheets? Use this guide in conjunction with bookie odds to predict clean sheets better.

Let’s face it, clean sheets (CS) aren’t always the most glamorous stat to analyze, especially for Fantasy Premier League purposes.

However, you’re missing out on some serious opportunity in both betting and FPL purposes. The Top 6 teams record approximately 40-45% of clean sheets per season, which means there’s value in CS if you know where to look.

However, for today, this guide is meant for historical analysis only. Past performance is not always an indicator of future production. Throughout the season, we will integrate bookie odds to try and predict the likelihood of a CS.

Clean Sheets By Week
This chart details the total number of CS by week for the last two PL seasons.

You’ll recall that the 2017-2018 season had no summer cup tournament. Is there any link to that with the high number of CS to start the season?

Total Clean Sheets By Season

Here’s an alternative view of CS over the last two seasons:

This chart shows distribution of CS data into quartiles, highlighting the mean and outliers.

The “box” indicates the data in between the 25th and 75th quartile for each data set. Thus, for example, the above chart tells us that for the 2018/2019 season, there were most likely between 4-7 CS per week.

The bottom tail represents everything below the 25th percentile, and the top tail represents the data above the 75th percentile. Thus, for the 2018/2019 season, the number of weeks in which seven or eight CS happened was the same as the number of weeks in which zero to four CS happened.

Clean Sheets – Top 6 Teams
99 total CS for the Top 6
85 total CS from the Top 6
Clean Sheets – Non-Top Six Teams
CS galore for the three relegated teams.
Everton with a strong CS record at home vs Top 6

Is there any CS data you’d like to see in the future? Follow us all season for updates!

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Fantasy Premier League 2019/2020 GW1 Strategies

Picking a Fantasy Premier League prior to the season can be a headache. Here are some strategies to starting your season off strong in 2019.

Last season, our fantasy Premier League squad finished in the top 1% of all teams, coming in at #45577. If you follow our blog, you’ll know our FPL season was filled with many twists and turns throughout the season. However, our squad shot ourselves in the foot in the beginning of the season by not planning out multiple weeks ahead.

Is there a fool proof plan guaranteed to start the season hot? Absolutely not, or we’d all be pro FPL players. Instead, we’ll look at strategies to minimize risk for the start of the season.

Fantasy Premier League Do’s

First off, let’s get out of the way the obvious (or what should be obvious) strategies to start the season:

  • DO plan to keep your starting XI the same for a minimum of the first two game weeks, barring injury. No need to start off the season taking unnecessary hits.
  • DO plan on splashing FPL cash for at least two premium forward or midfielder options for captaincy purposes. We prefer premium midfielders, as you’ll see below.
  • DO plan on bringing in defenders with the highest likelihood of keeping clean sheets at the beginning of the season. This seems obvious, but there’s multiple strategies around this for your back line.
  • DO consider early season fixture difficulty when picking non-premium players in your initial starting XI.
  • DO consider players that are playing out of position, but make sure their position is more attacking than how they’re classified on FPL. One example is a defender in a system designed to get him forward on the attack.
Fantasy Premier League Do Not’s
  • DO NOT be wasteful in spending FPL cash on bench options to start the season. Worry about your bench after the first couple months of the season when teams start playing multiple games each week.
  • DO NOT assume players that played well the prior season in a different league will transition smoothly the Premier League. It’s always best to wait and see the first month or so to see how they mesh with their new squad.
  • DO NOT load your team with players from newly promoted Premier League teams. For every 2018/2019 Wolves squad, there’s plenty more squads (Cardiff and Fulham last season) that just aren’t ready to play with the big boys.
  • DO NOT use your chips outside of your wildcard at the beginning of the season. Schedule shifting later in the season can make using the chips more advantageous.
  • DO NOT place defensive minded midfielders in your starting XI.
Lineup Strategies For Game Week 1

For purposes of starting your FPL season out strong in 2019, it’s looking more and more safe to start out with a minimum of three premium defenders. Then you should make the decision whether to go with a fourth 5.5M+ or two 4.5M defenders that rotate well based on their fixtures.

Again, the key to early season success is minimizing risk with your starting XI.

Check out the top 25 leading scorers from the first three game weeks in the 2018/2019 FPL season, courtesy of All Fantasy Tips:

Marcos AlonsoChelsea35
Sadio ManeLiverpool29
Neil EtheridgeCardiff28
Andrew RobertsonLiverpool27
Benjamin MendyManchester City27
Roberto PereyraWatford26
Mohamed SalahLiverpool25
Lucas MouraTottenham24
Jose HolebasWatford24
Sergio AgueroManchester City24
Aleksander MitrovicFulham24
Kieran TrippierTottenham22
Theo WalcottEverton22
Callum WilsonBournemouth22
Steve CookBournemouth21
RicharlisonEverton21
Joe GomezLiverpool20
Virgil Van DijkLiverpool20
James MilnerLiverpool20
PedroChelsea20
Paul PogbaManchester Utd20
Jan VerthongenTottenham19
James TarkowskiBurnley19
Ryan FraserBournemouth19
AlissonLiverpool19

You’ll notice that Aguero is one of three FPL forwards on here, as well as the only premium forward. This supports the theory to stick with budget forwards and goalies, and spend heavy on midfield and defense early.

Need more evidence that you’re increasing your risk by spending funds on a premium goalie? Check out this excellent Twitter thread from @FPLEditor:

With that, we are testing out a theory to start the season. We believe that defenses, in general, get more clean sheets at the beginning and end of the season, while allowing more goals in during the busy part of the season.

Thus, here is our proposed lineup for GW1, with no money left in the bank:

4-4-2 formation for GW1

Follow us all season for FPL updates. We have an exciting new FPL series in the works that will benefit your lineup decisions!

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FPL Fantasy Premier League Plan ROS

Our FPL fantasy Premier League squad is now in the top 100,000 in the world and first in our cash league. A strong wildcard play will secure our FPL gambling haul.

It’s been awhile since we’ve posted an update on our FPL squad. In fact, it’s been almost half a season. We’ve enjoyed all the drama in the Premier League so far, and there’s only five game weeks left in the season.

So what’s new? Well, we came in second in the first half of the season. Since then, we’ve had an excellent run of point scoring. We now lead our big money league by over 50 points, and our world ranking is near the top 1%.

Gameweeks 21-33

To give you a sense of the highs and lows during the 2nd leg of the FPL season, here are our lineups. We’ve played the Triple Captain and Free Hit chips so far:

Triple Captain chip
Our lowest scoring GW of the season.
Free Hit chip
Last week’s point haul pushed us in the top 100,000 for the first time ever.
Gameweek 34 Onward

There’s been a lot of movement in our lineup. This is because we decided to play our second wildcard chip. Here’s our proposed wildcard lineup:

New lineup is subject to change.

The above lineup is built to use the Bench Boost chip in GW 35 without any transfers between 34/35. Besides the Liverpool players, every other player has a double GW in GW 35. With this lineup, our squad has no money left in the bank.

This lineup is not without risk. For one, individuals such as Son, Sterling, and Lacazette could be rotated out of the lineup in GW 34. Also, there’s a chance that Brighton as a whole could perform well in their double GW 34.

Based on the remaining schedules, there’s a strong likelihood we will replace one of our starting midfielders with a bench player in GW 36, bring in Sergio Aguero and David De Gea in GW 37, and then a Manchester United attacker in GW 38.

What are your thoughts on the lineup?

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The Haul – FPL Fantasy Futb贸l Wildcard Edition

Our FPL squad played the wildcard before Week 16. Needless to say, Week 16 and Week 17 couldn’t have been more different. We’re 52 points behind first with three weeks left before the first payout.

Fantasy Premier League Week 16 Points: 38

Fantasy Premier League Week 17 Points: 75

Total FPL Points: 935
Default League Position: 2nd (no change)
Head-to-Head League Record: 8-9
Squad Value: 103.7M

Wildcard Time

As you can see, our FPL squad looks completely different than before. In fact, Raheem Sterling, Ryan Fraser, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka are the only holdovers from our pre-wildcard lineup.

Things We Like

  1. If there’s one thing we’ve learned since starting out with FPL, it’s that all Man City players are prone to rotation. Thankfully, Raheem Sterling can still be dangerous off the bench, as he scored a goal in Week 17 despite coming in at the 66th minute.
  2. Even though we had a terrible Week 16, our Week 17 allowed us to make up a total of ten points on first place over the past two weeks.
  3. Eden Hazard looks to be coming into form just as we got him in. If we can continue to obtain 40 combined points from Hazard, Sterling, Harry Kane, and Leroy San茅, we’ll be in great position to overtake first place prior to Week 21.
  4. Our bench stepped up for us in Week 17. Since two of our defenders missed the week due to injury, Ra煤l Jim茅nez and Wan-Bissaka subbed in and scored a combined 15 points. Unfortunately, Trent Alexander-Arnold will be out for a few games. Fortunately we set our squad up to where we have a luxury to make transfers for our defense based on matchups.

Things We Hate

  1. Obviously, it hurts to only score 38 points off a wildcard play in Week 16. If only we had played this wildcard before Week 15 or before Week 17. Mo Salah scored a hat trick in Week 16 and 21 FPL points alone. If we had captained him, double that.
  2. The first place squad still has a wildcard to use. After only scoring 40 points this week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see them use it for Week 18. The one silver lining is that their squad value is only 101.6 compared to our 103.7 value.

Looking Forward

After seventeen game weeks, we are still in 2nd place and 52 points behind first. We badly need our squad to survive rotation during this Christmas period in order to catch up and overtake first place.

Recall that the squad in 1st place after Game Week 20 will receive $450, and the team in 1st at the end of the Premier League season also gets $450.

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