2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 7

PL teams reverted to the expected clean sheet average after Round 7. Also, teams continue to give up 2+ goals at their expected rate.

Round 7 featured five teams with a clean sheet against a 5.78 expected number. For the season, there have been a little over 41 expected CS, but only 34 CS kept.

Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 7. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:

After the seventh week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Clean Sheet Comparison

After seven weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 7?

Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals

We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.

Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:

From Rounds 2-7, there have been 53 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the 53.13 expected number of instances according to bookies.

There have been 45 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 28 actually happened. Conversely, in the 75 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 26 ended up coming to fruition.

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2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 6

Finally, teams achieved a clean sheet at a higher rate than bookie expectations. Also, teams continue to give up 2+ goals at their expected rate.

In fact, Round 6 marked the first round in over a month in which Premier League teams achieved a clean sheet than expected (6 vs 5.5, respectively). For the season, there have been a little over 35 expected CS, but only 29 CS kept.

Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 5. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:

Watford LOL

After the sixth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Clean Sheet Comparison

After six weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

West Ham has achieved three clean sheets in the last three weeks.

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 6?

Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals

We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.

Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:

From Rounds 2-6, there have been 43 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the 45 expected number of instances according to bookies.

There have been 35 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 20 actually happened. In the 65 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 23 ended up coming to fruition.

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2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 5

Getting a clean sheet has proven tough after five rounds of Premier League action. On the flip side, teams are giving up 2+ goals at their expected rate.

In short, Round 5 marked the fourth week in a row where the clean sheet total fell short of bookie expectations. For the season, there have been right around 30 expected CS, but only 23 CS kept.

Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 5. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:

After the fifth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

Chelsea is now the only Top 6 team without a clean sheet.
Clean Sheet Comparison

After five weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 5?

Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals

We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.

Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:

Over the last four rounds, there have been 34 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the expected number of instances, currently just under 36.

There have been 28 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 16 actually happened. In the 52 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 18 ended up coming to fruition.

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2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 4

After four rounds of Premier League action, a clean sheet is happening at a lower rate than expected this season. What should fans expect going forward?

With the Premier League is on international break, let’s take a look back and see how clean sheet potential compares with the actual number.

In short, Round 4 marked the third week in a row where the actual number of clean sheets fell short of bookie expectations. For the season, there have been a little over 24 expected CS, but only 18 CS kept.

After the fourth week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

After four weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

Chelsea & Tottenham still don’t have a CS

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 4?

More in-depth historical CS data can be found here, but here’s how the weekly CS output compares to the last two seasons:

Clean sheets are down over the first four weeks compared to the last two seasons
Clean Sheet Comparison

We had a theory coming into this season. We thought that this season’s CS tally would mirror more towards the 2017/2018 season due to lack of international commitments. Boy, were we wrong. Here are a couple CS facts so far this season:

  • There have been a total of 5 CS between the Top 6. This is down from 18/19 (8 CS after 4 weeks) and 17/18 (11 CS after 4 weeks).
  • It took until Round 4 of this #PremierLeague season for teams with over 50% probability to keep a CS to achieve them. In the last two seasons, at least two teams with over a 50% probability to keep a CS achieved them in Round 1.
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals

We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.

Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:

Over the last three rounds, there have been 25 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. There have been 20 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 12 actually happened. In the 40 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 13 ended up coming to fruition.

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2019 Premier League Clean Sheet Review – Round 3

Did your team keep a clean sheet last weekend? After three weeks, there have been 18.13 expected clean sheets in the Premier League, but only 14 achieved.

Round 3 had only three teams that kept a clean sheet. This was similar to Round 2, where teams set a new clean sheet record low for that round.

After the third week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:

After three weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:

Three of the Top 6 teams still don’t have a CS this season.

So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 3?

Thoughts

After three weeks, there have been 18.13 expected CS combined from all twenty teams. There have been only fourteen achieved thus far in the Premier League season. Will the amount of CS increase back to the expected number soon?

Remember how last week we made a prediction that at least one and likely two of Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham would keep a CS?

Yeah, forget that. Not only did exactly zero of these teams kept a CS, but two of those teams also lost.

Looking ahead, Manchester City sets a new season record for highest probability of keeping a CS – 66.6% chance at home vs. Brighton. No other team has had higher than a 60% chance of keeping a CS this season.

Finally, Liverpool is over a 50% probability of keeping a CS this weekend. Including this week’s odds means their expected number of CS will be right around 2 after four weeks. The bookies believe that a Liverpool CS is just around the corner.

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