Here are our favorite bets on the big game.
First off, we regret to inform everyone that Sports Betting Nicolas Cage is still AWOL. We’re guessing he finally snapped after posting a 1-3 record during the NFL Wildcard Weekend.
This leaves Sports Betting Nicolas Cage with a 24-15 record on the 2018-2019 NFL season, so we have big shoes to fill. Maybe you should just do the opposite of what we say.
James White O/U 5.5 Receptions
Some betting places increased this O/U to 6.5 based on the action leaning towards the Over. We agree with this, despite the Rams ranked #4 during the regular season in defensive DVOA against RBs in the passing game.
In 18 games this season, James White caught 6 or more receptions in 8 games, but the Patriots have shown that will pepper White with targets when needed. In the Divisional game against the Chargers, White caught 5 balls on the opening touchdown drive alone. He ended up with 15 receptions on the game. And don’t forget, he caught 14 balls in Super Bowl LI and arguably should have won the Super Bowl MVP.
It seems this insightful SB Nation article on James White agrees, as well.
The Rams defense got torched by Alvin Kamara to the tune of 11 receptions. We think the Patriots will see what happened in the NFC Championship game and attack it, especially since they don’t have a field stretcher at WR due to Josh Gordon’s suspension.
Todd Gurley O/U 63.5 rushing yards
(Potential Hedge: CJ Anderson OVER 49.5 rushing yards)
We assume that Vegas has no idea what to make of Todd Gurley’s involvement in this game, as well as no idea if his previously injured knee is still affecting his play. This line, if this were the regular season, would be criminally low.
We’re taking LA coach Sean McVay’s word for it that Gurley is 100% healthy and will be a big part of the game.
Even if you may think the Rams will split carries between Gurley and CJ Anderson, the Rams averaged 143 rushing yards per game in the regular season and blitzed the formidable Dallas rushing defense in the payoffs for 273 rushing yards. While they only rushed for 77 yards last week, they played catchup all game, not to mention New Orleans ranked even higher than Dallas in defensive rushing DVOA. New England struggled against the run all season, allowing a fourth-worst 4.9 yards per carry.
1st Quarter Spread
Pick: Rams +0.5
Did you know that New England has scored a grand total of just three first-quarter points in the eight Super Bowls of the Brady/Belichick era? Seriously.
We believe two things will happen. One, the Rams will start off fast in this game against a mediocre Pats D. Or, the game will start with minimum scoring, and the Patriots will adjust their gameplay to counter punch the Rams as the game goes on. That’s how they’ve traditionally played in the Super Bowl.
Oh, you wondered what we’re betting on for the outcome of the Super Bowl? We’re going Rams +2.5, but we won’t blame you if you bet on the Patriots and their past Super Bowl experience. We just think that if we picked a NFL team of only Rams and Patriots players, we’d have a lot more Rams players. Talent vs. experience – which will win out?
Best of luck on your Super Bowl bets!