PL teams reverted to the expected clean sheet average after Round 7. Also, teams continue to give up 2+ goals at their expected rate.
Round 7 featured five teams with a clean sheet against a 5.78 expected number. For the season, there have been a little over 41 expected CS, but only 34 CS kept.
Below are the bookie predictions for each individual match for Round 7. To see last week’s review, click here. The green bars stand for CS potential, while the red bars stand for the potential to give up 2+ goals:
After the seventh week of PL action, here’s how the scores look:
Clean Sheet Comparison
After seven weeks of Premier League action, here’s a comparison of teams, the number of clean sheets achieved, and their expected clean sheets according to bookie odds:
So how accurate were the bookie predictions after Round 7?
Potential To Give Up 2+ Goals
We started tracking potential to give up 2+ goals starting in Round 2. For FPL purposes, giving up a second goal reduces FPL points for defenders and goalies by one. Over the course of a full season, those points add up.
Here’s how the weekly expected number of instances where a team gives up 2+ goals compare with the actual number:
From Rounds 2-7, there have been 53 instances of a team giving up 2+ goals. This is in line with the 53.13 expected number of instances according to bookies.
There have been 45 instances in which a team had a 50% or above chance to give up 2+ goals; 28 actually happened. Conversely, in the 75 instances in which a team had less than a 50% chance to give up 2+ goals, 26 ended up coming to fruition.