Check out our all NCAA tournament betting analysis here in our blog.
After a hot start in betting on the tournament, we cooled off a bit last weekend. We are now 8-6 on betting on the tournament.
After looking at the numbers, the spreads and O/U for both games seem to be right on point. For Virginia vs. Auburn, the line moved from Virginia -5.5 to -6. For Michigan State vs. Texas Tech, the line moved from Michigan State -2.5 to -2.
However, there are two NCAA Final Four prop bets which we find very intriguing. Both happen to be on the Virginia vs. Auburn matchup.
O/U 17.5 Combined 3PT FGs Made
This number seems low because Virginia is a great defense against the three. However, so far in this tournament, opposing teams have been shooting a lot of 3s against the vaunted Virginia defense.
In fact, up until the game against Purdue in the Elite Eight, Virginia faced offenses that were outside the top 100 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts. All three of these teams shot over twenty times from outside the arc against Virginia. Here are the number of made three pointers made by each team that played Virginia:
- Garder-Webb: 9
- Oklahoma: 8
- Oregon: 9
When they played Purdue, a team in the top 50 in 3PT FG attempts as a percentage of total FG attempts, Virginia allowed 14 made threes.
Over the regular season, Auburn placed in the top 10 in this category with just under 50% of their total FG attempts from 3. And as you know, Auburn has the hottest offense of all the remaining teams in the Final Four. They made at least ten threes in all their games in the tournament except for their Elite Eight matchup against Kentucky.
On the other end, Auburn allows a lot of three point attempts as well. They were outside the top 300 in this category as a percentage of total FG attempts. While Virginia hasn’t shot the three as well in the tournament as in the regular season, they should get plenty of opportunities.
We project twenty combined made threes in this matchup and like the over.
Largest Lead By Either Squad O/U – 14.5
At first glance, these two bets seem a little contradictory. But we like the percentage of likeliness that at least one of these, if not both, will happen.
One thing that has long been a liability for Virginia’s slower style of offense is that the Cavaliers struggle to separate against quality opponents. Auburn will be no different barring a complete no show from three point land.
However, Virginia’s efficiency on both ends of the floor doesn’t allow them to go down by a big lead either. We see both teams trading punches throughout the game, and the final result will end close instead one team landing a knockout punch early.
Best of luck to all those betting on the NCAA Final Four!