Kentucky Derby Best Bets of 2019

Below is your betting primer on the 2019 Kentucky Derby, including analysis of the horses most likely to win and best bets.

Horse Betting 101

Below are the most basic bets on any horse race:

  • The first is a “win” bet. The horse must win the race in order for you to win the wager.
  • Next, is a “place” bet. You win the wager if your horse finishes first or second.
  • Betting a horse to “show” means selecting a horse who you think will finish in the top 3.

Because of the difficulty of a win wager, it will yield the highest payoff of the three. A show wager will yield the lowest payoff but offers the greatest chance of winning. The minimum bet for a win, place or show bet is only $2.

Exacta Bets

You bet an exacta by selecting a minimum two horses to finish first and second. These horses must finish first and second, in that order, for you to win the wager. Thus, an exacta is more difficult than win, place and show wagers, but yields a higher payout.

If picking two horsesĀ in order sounds too difficult, you can “box” your wager. A boxed wager will win if your horses finish 1st and 2nd, in any order, making it more likely for you to win. The minimum bet for an exacta or exacta box wager is only $2.

Trifecta Bets

You bet a trifecta by selecting a minimum three horses to finish first, second, and third. These horses must finish first, second, and third, in that exact order, for you to win the bet. Therefore, a trifecta is more difficult than win, place and show bets, as well as exacta bets, so it yields a higher payout than any of those bets.

If picking three horsesĀ in order sounds like too much, you can “box” your bet. A boxed trifecta bet will win if your horses finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, in any order, making it more likely to win. The minimum bet for a trifecta wager is only 50 cents, and you can bet a trifecta box for as little as $3.

Now that you know how to bet on horse races, let’s take a look at the field for the Kentucky Derby. One thing to note is that unlike most sports betting, people usually wait until closer to the start in order to bet. This happens due to horses getting scratched from the race on occasion, as well as the fact that odds don’t lock in until the race.

Thus, these odds below will change:

Fast Facts
  1. The last seven Derby winners either won the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, or Florida Derby. The horses that won these races are Roadster, Omaha Beach, and Maximum Security, respectively.
  2. However, Omaha Beach, the original favorite, was scratched from the Derby. Thus, this race has no clear cut favorite. Roadster is unknown on longer tracks like Churchill Downs. Maximum Security has had poor workouts leading up to the Derby. For a horse that’s won all four of his races, something isn’t right.
  3. Weather conditions look to be wet and sloppy for the race. When this is the case, the favorites usually become even greater favorites.
  4. A horse trained by Bob Baffert has won the Triple Crown two of the last four years. This makes him the most successful trainer today. Impossible and Game Winner are his two horses that are favorites.
  5. Improbable is the only horse classified as a favorite that’s ran a race on a wet track (Arkansas Derby).
Best Bet

This bet sounds like a cop out, but it’s the safest bet. This field is truly more wide open than any other field in recent memory. The presumed favorite, Omaha Beach, has to sit out this race.

Maximum Security seems just as likely to win and he is to place near the back of the pack. Roadster ran on a Santa Anita track that’s been closed the majority of this year. Add this to the fact Roadster never ran on a track near the length of the Kentucky Derby. Roadster makes for a risky horse to pick.

Thus, our safest bet is Improbable as a SHOW. It should pay our near even odds in the end, and Improbable’s races show that he can race well on all sort of tracks.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Playoff Preview

After a fantasy football regular season of ups and downs, our playoff bracket is set. We limped into the playoffs as the 5th seed, but are hopeful for a strong finish.

Final Regular Season Power Rankings

StakeHaul Fantasy Football Regular Season - Final - 2018

The picture above shows a week-by-week comparison of all the playoff teams in our fantasy football league, along whether we actually won or lost our matchup. The “Total” column shows our overall records if we played every team every week. The “Actual” column shows our final records and the seed in our playoffs each team received.

Since we’re the 5th seed, we have concerns about how our team will perform in the playoffs considering our poor final two weeks. Also, our first round opponent is much stronger than their season record indicates. According to our power rankings, this team is the second strongest team in our league.

StakeHaul vs #4 Seed


FAAB Dollars Remaining: $63

On one hand, ESPN projections favor our lineup to the #4 seed. On the other hand, we feel most avid fantasy football players would prefer our opponent’s lineup this weekend based on potential explosiveness.

The biggest individual matchups here are Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley vs. Alvin Kamara. We hope Baltimore’s top ranked defense can reign in Patrick Mahomes, while Aaron Rodgers balls out against an injury ravaged Atlanta defense. Also, we’re hoping that Rodgers plays inspired football now that the Packers fired Mike McCarthy.

#6 Seed vs #3 Seed

This matchup features a six seed that’s been quite hot over the past four weeks and a three seed that’s been consistently above average most of the season. Presumably, Christian McCaffery will have to have another big game for the six seed to have any chance at winning.

#1 Seed Lineup

#2 Seed Lineup

Our top two seeds get a bye week this upcoming weekend. We beat the #1 seed in the first week of the season and lost to them in Week 12. However, they scored the highest number of total fantasy points throughout the season. The #2 seed rode Todd Gurley’s coattails throughout most of the season and looked to coast to the top seed, but losses in their last two weeks cost them.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Week 12

Our fantasy football championship aspirations took a drastic turn for the worse after this weekend. In addition to losing a first round bye, our team lost Melvin Gordon to injury.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Summary (for last week’s result, click here)

Team #6 vs. StakeHaul


Week 12 Points: 117.4
Head-to-Head League Result: L 117.4-139.1
Total Season Points:
League Record: 7-5
League Standings: T-3rd
Power Rankings Record (This Week):
Power Rankings Record (Overall):
Total Season Haul From Side Bets: +$90
FAAB Dollars Remaining: $70

Lineup Moves

We spent $18 of FAAB this week, spending $12 on Stephen Gostkowski (NE K) and $6 on the Lions defense to plug them in the first and hopefully the second round of our playoffs. Hopefully, the move for Gostkowski will be the last move for a kicker this season.

Finally, we made a free transfer for Luke Kuechly for our IDP spot. Unless he’s injured, he’s staying in our starting lineup for the remainder of the season.

Thoughts From Week 12

We’re pretty angry about this week. If it’s even possible, we’re more angry than an angry Nicolas Cage.

For one, our opponent traded for JuJu Smith-Schuster earlier in the week. His 97 yard touchdown grab…no words.

Aaron Rodgers and Alvin Kamara, to our detriment, scored two of their lowest outputs of the season.

The worst part? We still could have won had we started Amari Cooper over Chris Carson. We opted for the safer play due to us being favorites in the matchup.

Finally, did you hear Melvin Gordon sprained his MCL and could be out for the rest of the fantasy football season? Fantastic. We love Melvin and wish for a speedy recovery.

Luckily, our Aaron Rodgers trade last week also netted us Gordon’s backup, Austin Ekeler. However, we still feel sick over losing Gordon’s high-scoring consistency.

Hear It From Our Week 12 Opponent!

Thank you for not starting Amari Cooper this week! Hahahahaha.

Week 13 Preview and Looking Forward

StakeHaul vs. Team #8

With virtually no chance at a first-round bye, we need to win and score well this week to secure the 3rd seed. Currently, we would be seeded 4th if the playoffs started today. We are nine points off from the 3rd seed, and 5th seed is four points behind us.

We’re playing the same team we lost to in Week 2. However, since that week, our opponent lost seven of their last nine and is out of playoff contention. Additionally, they are in the bottom half of our power rankings, so we feel good about winning.

As we stated earlier, we’re still in 5th place in our power rankings. Our power rankings are based on a W-L record using our score from each week and comparing it to the other teams score that week. Below is our season long power rankings record compared to the league:

This upcoming weekend will have a lot of maneuvering to determine our playoff picture. We’re preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Week 11

Our fantasy football team continued its strong performance, but the Chiefs v. Rams game prevented us from claiming the top score of the week. Looking ahead, our next matchup could determine who gets the second bye in our playoffs.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Summary (for last week’s result, click here)

StakeHaul vs Team #9


Week 10 Points: 134.3
Head-to-Head League Result: W 134.3-79.1
Total Season Points: 1364.9
League Record: 7-4
League Standings: T-2nd
Power Rankings Record (This Week): 8-3
Power Rankings Record (Overall): 70-51
Total Season Haul From Side Bets: +$90
FAAB Dollars Remaining: $88

Lineup Moves

For all those that read last week’s fantasy football post, you know we traded for Aaron Rodgers. However, we had to replace our IDP and our kicker due to bye weeks for our normal starters. Thus, we brought in Landon Collins (NYG S) and the Tennessee Titans kicker, Ryan Succop.

By the way, this was Sports Betting Nicolas Cage’s reaction when we told him we picked up a player from the Titans…

We guess that when one loses two sports bets on the Titans, that person kinda freaks out and make no sense.

Anyways, as a Wisconsin startup and Green Bay Packers fans, it’s really hard to admit that the Chicago Bears look like a good team this year, especially on offense. However, we bit our tongue, picked up Anthony Miller, and dropped Tre’Quan Smith due to Miller’s WR production over the last four weeks.

Finally, we asked Twitter for their thoughts on who to start in our flex spot this week: Chris Carson or Kenny Golladay.

Thoughts From Week 11

  1. We went against the Twitter consensus and started Kenny Golladay. While we’re pleased that Carson played well against Green Bay and made it through without injury, we couldn’t be happier with starting Golladay. Obviously, Golladay is a must start in Week 12, even against the Bears defense.
  2. Aaron Rodgers gave us a solid 22 points, but we’re increasingly paranoid that Rodgers might start mailing it in towards the end of the season if the Packers don’t start winning. Call us crazy, but he doesn’t look like he wants to be out there with Mike McCarthy still calling the plays. Also, he’s not giving any “R-E-L-A-X” or “I think we can run the table” quotes to reassure the fans.
  3. The Bears defense continues to show itself as our best waiver wire pickup of the season. They have two tough matchups during Weeks 14 and 15 (Rams and Packers), but they’re playing so well that we’re second guessing benching them for those weeks.

Hear It From Our Week 11 Opponent!

Just like I’ve been saying all week, I had no chance. I still think you have bribe material on these managers you made trades with this season.

Editor’s note: Our opponent went on a long tirade after seeing we traded for Aaron Rodgers. In fact, he changed his team name and logo to appropriately vent his anger at the team that originally had Rodgers.

Week 12 Preview and Looking Forward

StakeHaul vs. Team #6

Our matchup in Week 12 has big playoff implications. We face another 7-4 team and the highest scoring team in the league. We faced this team Week 1 and won, but we had to field the highest scoring team of Week 1 to win.

Basically, we need to win this week to have a chance to claim the second bye in our league playoffs, which would be Week 14.

As we stated earlier, we’re still in 5th place in our power rankings. Our power rankings are based on a W-L record using our score from each week and comparing it to the other teams score that week. Below is our season long power rankings record compared to the league:

We’ve got three straight weeks of consistently strong performance heading into the playoffs. This week will go a long way in showing how our playoffs will be seeded.

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The Haul – Fantasy Football Week 10

A high scoring fantasy football weekend netted us a win and a four-way tie for second place. If that wasn’t exciting enough, we made another trade.

Fantasy Football Week 10 Summary (for last week’s result, click here)

StakeHaul vs Team #3


Week 10 Points: 137.4
Head-to-Head League Result: W 137.4-107.9
Total Season Points: 1230.6
League Record: 6-4
League Standings: T-2nd
Power Rankings Record (This Week): 10-1
Power Rankings Record (Overall): 62-48 (5th)
Total Season Haul From Side Bets: +$90
FAAB Dollars Remaining: $88

Wait, Another Trade!?

While we didn’t spend FAAB dollars this past week, we swung our third fantasy football trade of the season, effective immediately after Week 10 concluded.

We traded away the following:

  • Tom Brady (NE QB)
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR)

In return, we received:

  • Aaron Rodgers (GB QB)
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB)

We like this trade on two fronts. One, we believe Aaron Rodgers provides us with an upgraded starting QB. Two, we get cover in case Melvin Gordon hurts himself again. However, we are going to miss Courtland Sutton and his potential to be a valuable keeper next season.

We posted a poll on Twitter on who got the better end of this trade. Twitter gave us the advantage.

Thoughts From Week 10

  1. We had to endure a rough three weeks of low fantasy output from Kenny Golladay, so we’re glad he rebounded in a big way. In all honesty, we’ve been trying to trade him over the last month, to no avail. We tried including him instead of Sutton in trade talks with the team we got Aaron Rodgers from. We’re hoping Kenny G can be a valuable starter down the stretch.
  2. Speaking of Kenny Golladay, we tried packaging him in a trade to receive Leonard Fournette to that same team we ended up getting Aaron Rodgers from. Frankly, this team needed wide receivers, and we were looking to consolidate our bench into every-week FLEX starters. At the end of the day, the other manage wanted to see how Fournette would do for the rest of the season. It will be interesting to analyze this non-move at the end of the fantasy football season.
  3. We’ve been ridiculously impatient with kickers this season. We dropped Dustin Hopkins (Redskins) and put in Jason Myers (Jets). This transaction lost us six points when comparing the two. Also, we will have to change kickers for next week since the Jets have a bye week.
  4. Ditto for tight ends. We dropped Jordan Reed (Redskins) and picked up Evan Engram (Giants). Despite their team records, we like the potential of the Giants offense more than the Redskins potential. Also, Reed hadn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1. Their performance this past weekend was very comparable, but we really need a healthy Rob Gronkowski to be a difference maker come playoff time.
  5. Overall, a strong team performance, despite our now former quarterback doing nothing against the Titans defense. Even better, second place lost to first place. We are now in a four-way tie for second and the other playoff bye.

Hear It From Our Week 10 Opponent!

Get this season over with. When is the 2019 draft scheduled for?

Week 11 Preview and Looking Forward

StakeHaul vs. Team #9

For Week 11, we face a team with a 5-5 record and 9th place in our power rankings. This team got absolutely boned by Cody Parkey last week. Parkey got -7 points, and this team lost by 1.1 points. You have to see this for yourself.

As we stated earlier, we’re in 5th place in our power rankings. Our power rankings are based on a W-L record using our score from each week and comparing it to the other teams score that week. For example, our Week 10 W-L record was 10-1, which means we were the second highest scoring team in the league in Week 10. Below is our season long power rankings record compared to the league:

Our power rankings record is 62-48. This tells us our actual league record is in line with how well our team has scored this season. It also shows we got lucky to win Weeks 3,6, and 7, while we were unlucky to lose Weeks 2,4, and 9.

Here’s to hoping Aaron Rodgers can make our squad stronger going forward.

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